A powerful anti-incumbent mood is gripping the country as it marks its 250th anniversary, posing a serious threat to Republican control of the House and Senate, political analysts warn. With President Trump's approval rating hovering around 40 percent, the GOP faces a hostile electorate that has already ousted eight House incumbents—five Democrats and three Republicans—and two GOP senators, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas, in primary contests this year.
GOP Fears Losing Control
Republicans on Capitol Hill are increasingly concerned that the anti-establishment wave could cost them their narrow House majority and possibly the Senate. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott of South Carolina has privately warned GOP senators about “how bad polling is, currently, for Republicans and how bad the president is losing ground among all groups,” according to a senior Republican aide. Senate Republican Conference Chair Tom Cotton of Arkansas also shared polling at a recent lunch that showed independents moving heavily toward Democrats, a GOP senator who attended the presentation confirmed.
Trump's Approval: A Red Flag
Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster, called Trump's slumping approval a major warning sign, citing historical trends: “We know that the party in power tends to lose House seats in a midterm election, but the number of seats lost is highly correlated with the president’s popularity. When presidential job approval is above 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 14. When it’s below 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 32.” Ayres noted that extreme redistricting and polarization could limit GOP losses, but added, “There are very few people at this point who are predicting that the Democrats will not gain seats in the House.”
Republicans currently hold 218 House seats to Democrats' 212, with one independent and four vacancies. Trump's disapproval rating stands at about 57 percent, according to Real Clear Politics averages. Lawmakers in Washington are watching nervously as voters vent frustration over the economy and the nation's direction. Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said, “This is going to be a big year for primary losses in the House. There’s generally a sour mood in the country.” He compared the current Democratic upheaval to the Tea Party movement that fueled GOP gains in 2010, calling it a “Democratic Tea Party movement going on.”
Populist Shifts on Both Sides
Kondik added, “There’s an antiestablishment feeling on both sides. Will the general election be an anti-incumbent election? It probably will be in the sense that you’re probably going to see a lot of Republican incumbents lose, at least in the House.” He noted that polls showing most voters think the country is on the wrong track, combined with Trump's low approval, are flashing red for Republicans. “A lot of people in the country are pretty disgruntled right now, and that’s not a good place for an incumbent party to be in. That same dynamic helps explain why Trump won in 2024, it’s just that he hasn’t been able to turn the ship around,” he said.
Some Republican pollsters argue that despite the headwinds, GOP candidates can still win by drawing sharp contrasts with Democrats on issues like banning transgender athletes from women's sports. Pollster Jim McLaughlin said incumbents lose for different reasons: “The ones that lose on the Republican side aren’t sufficiently pro-America First, Trumpy, and the ones who are losing on the Democratic side, which is a big problem for the Democrats, is they’re not socialist enough.” He pointed to polling in New York's Democratic mayoral primary that showed 80 percent of Democrats had favorable views of socialists, and warned that “in Colorado, they’re nominating Marxist extremists in their primaries, and all Democrats are going to have to answer.”
Still, Trump's approval remains a major drag. A Fox News poll of 1,002 registered voters in mid-June found only 23 percent approve of his handling of gas prices and 31 percent approve of his handling of the economy. Democratic strategists say that spells trouble for GOP incumbents. As the nation grapples with its 250th year, the anti-incumbent fury—fueled by economic anxiety and institutional distrust—could reshape Congress, with Republicans at greatest risk of losing their majorities.
For more on the broader political landscape, read about how America's broken institutions fuel national despair and the mixed messages from global leaders on America's 250th anniversary.
