The United States' fertility rate has fallen to an unprecedented low, according to new federal data, continuing a nearly two-decade slide that researchers partly attribute to the rise of smartphones.
Data released earlier this year by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the nation's fertility rate hit 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2025. That represents a roughly 23% decline from 2007, when the rate was around 69 births per 1,000 women.
The drop has been steady but uneven. Between 2007 and 2010, during the Great Recession, the fertility rate fell by about 7%. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic drove a roughly 5% decline between 2020 and 2025.
A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, released this year, offers a novel explanation: the iPhone. Researchers argue that the rollout of Apple's smartphone may account for one-third to one-half of the decline in general fertility between 2007 and 2011. The effect was especially pronounced among women under 25, the paper notes.
The findings add a technological twist to a demographic trend that has major implications for the economy, healthcare, and social policy. Lower birth rates mean a smaller future workforce, higher dependency ratios, and potential strain on programs like Social Security and Medicare.
The fertility decline has not been uniform across the country. Some states have seen steeper drops, particularly in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, while others, like the Dakotas and Utah, have held relatively steady.
Policymakers have taken notice. In May 2026, former President Donald Trump announced a fertility benefit option and the launch of a website, moms.gov, as part of a broader push to address the trend. The move came amid ongoing debates over family policy, including paid leave and childcare subsidies.
The paper's authors caution that correlation does not equal causation, but the timing of the iPhone's introduction and the subsequent fertility decline is striking. The device, they suggest, may have displaced other activities—including those that lead to conception—particularly among younger women.
As the nation grapples with a shrinking birth rate, the intersection of technology and demography is likely to remain a focus for researchers and policymakers alike.
