President Trump has privately told Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) that his reelection chances are fading, according to the congressman, as the party grapples with the political fallout of domestic abuse allegations that threaten to cost them a seat in a razor-thin House majority.
Miller, who has denied the allegations and sued his ex-wife for defamation, said in a Wall Street Journal interview that Trump called him Monday and offered support but expressed doubt about his ability to win. The president had earlier praised Miller as "a good person," calling the situation "very sad."
In a subsequent CNN interview, Miller said he reminded Trump of his own 2016 resilience. "He said, 'Max, it's going to be a tough race,' and he said, 'I don't know if you're going to be able to, you know, pull this one out.' And you know what, Jake, I reminded him of the same resilience that he had when people told him that he was going to struggle in 2016 and he became the 45th president of the United States, and I have the utmost confidence that my constituents back home know me."
However, a source familiar with the call told The Hill that Trump actually advised Miller to drop out. The discrepancy highlights the delicate balancing act for a president who has long cultivated ties with both Miller and his ex-wife's father, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who has called on Miller to resign.
Senate Republicans have grown increasingly vocal. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said Miller should not be in office, and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) echoed calls for resignation. Moreno, who is the father of Miller's ex-wife Emily Moreno, urged Miller to step down over the weekend. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has sidestepped the issue, calling it a House matter.
The allegations, which include claims that Miller threw scalding water and broke his two-year-old daughter's collarbone, have shifted the race. The Cook Political Report moved it from "solidly Republican" to "likely Republican" in June, and the University of Virginia Center for Politics now rates it "lean Republican." Miller won by 15 points in 2024, while Trump carried the district by 11 points.
Ohio Republican strategist Mehek Cooke said the controversy is a distraction. "This is no longer about one person; it's about ensuring the focus remains on delivering for Ohio families rather than defending constant controversy," she said.
Miller's Democratic opponent, Brian Poindexter, condemned the allegations, saying, "No one credibly accused of holding a gun to his wife's head and breaking their two-year-old daughter's collarbone belongs in the halls of power." The House Majority PAC's communications director, CJ Warnke, said the group "is willing to do whatever it takes to take back the House, and nothing is off the table."
Miller would need to resign or drop out by Aug. 10 for Republicans to replace him on the ballot. So far, he has shown no intention of doing so. On Tuesday, he announced he would file his own ethics complaint to clear his name, following a 20-minute livestream in which he pushed back on specific allegations, asking, "Ask yourself, if I had assaulted her, would she have offered to cook me dinner six days later?"
A source close to the White House called the livestream a major unforced error: "If that moron didn't do that livestream, you and I wouldn't be talking about this right now."
The situation draws parallels to the suspension of Democratic Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner after sexual assault allegations, but Republicans note that unlike Platner's replacement facing a formidable incumbent, a Miller replacement would run against a nonincumbent in Poindexter.
Trump has endorsed Miller's past campaigns and attended his 2022 wedding to Emily Moreno. Former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham, who dated Miller, has said she told Trump and first lady Melania Trump about what she called an abusive relationship with him. Grisham's attorney announced she filed a temporary restraining order against Miller on Monday.
As the controversy persists, Ohio GOP insiders are watching closely. One strategist argued that with Miller on the ballot, "it's incredibly difficult to hold a seat that they should," potentially affecting the party's House majority. Another noted there is currently no effort to replace him.
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to focus on other races, including a recent Michigan primary loss for his preferred candidate and a Washington state victory for a Trump-backed contender. The Miller saga, however, remains a lingering distraction for a party eager to defend its narrow majority.
