A senior political adviser to former President Trump has signaled that Republicans still see a viable route to holding onto both chambers of Congress in November, even as polling and public sentiment increasingly turn against the party.
James Blair, who stepped down as White House deputy chief of staff in April to lead the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc., told NBC News’s Here’s the Scoop: Election Edition podcast that he is “cautiously optimistic” about the GOP’s chances. “I won’t predict, you know, how many seats are going to be in either chamber come November,” Blair said, “But, I do think there is a path for us to retain both majorities and defy history.”
Blair’s remarks come as Republicans confront a challenging electoral landscape. Recent surveys indicate growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s job performance, particularly on economic management and the ongoing conflict with Iran, which has now stretched into its sixth month. A Quinnipiac University poll released Friday found that, if the midterms were held now, voters would favor Democrats retaking the House.
Despite these headwinds, Blair argued that national trends do not necessarily dictate local outcomes. “There is a national backdrop against which things are being fought, and there are local considerations and sort of very specific considerations that a good campaign will be able to utilize both of,” he said. He emphasized that Republicans have time to make their case to voters before November.
A key pillar of the GOP’s strategy is boosting turnout among Trump’s base, particularly those who supported him in 2024 but are not reliable midterm voters. At the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention in Dallas on Thursday, Trump urged supporters to pledge to vote and to bring friends and family to the polls. “You know what happens if you don’t vote? You go to hell,” Trump joked. “So please go and vote.”
Blair maintained that Trump’s presence is an asset for energizing these voters, noting that Democrats are already using Trump as a “turnout tool” for their own base, regardless of Republican efforts. He also sought to downplay concerns about the political fallout from the Iran war and economic anxiety, attributing inflation to the previous administration. “We’re still cleaning up that mess, and we need more time to finish the job,” Blair said. “That’s what we’re asking for in November.”
MAGA Inc. has been deploying its substantial war chest to key races. Trump has claimed to have raised approximately $850 million and intends to spend heavily to support Republican candidates. This financial muscle could prove decisive in tight contests, but it also draws scrutiny, as seen in the bribery accusations surrounding Trump’s $5,000 check offer.
Still, the GOP faces an uphill battle. The party’s candidates are split on how closely to align with Trump as the midterm blitz intensifies, and the president’s $5,000 midterm pledge faces legal and fiscal hurdles. Such divisions and controversies could complicate the party’s efforts to unify voters around a positive message.
Blair, however, remains confident that Republicans can overcome the odds. “We’re still cleaning up that mess, and we need more time to finish the job,” he reiterated, framing the midterms as a referendum on the previous administration rather than the current one. Whether that argument resonates with an electorate increasingly frustrated with the status quo will determine whether the GOP can indeed defy historical trends.
