Texas state Rep. Steve Toth (R) is projected to win the open 2nd Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ, defeating Democrat Shaun Finnie. With nearly all votes counted, Toth secured just over 51 percent of the vote, while Finnie took about 49 percent.
The district, which spans parts of Harris and Montgomery counties north of Houston, has been a Republican stronghold for years. Toth's win keeps the seat in GOP hands, but the narrow margin underscores the shifting political dynamics in the suburbs.
Toth's path to Congress began in March, when he defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary, capturing 55.79 percent of the vote to Crenshaw's 40.69 percent. That upset was fueled by conservative dissatisfaction with Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL who drew criticism from the right for his refusal to echo former President Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in 2020.
Trump endorsed Toth in the primary, making Crenshaw the only House Republican in Texas without the former president's backing. Toth also secured endorsements from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Turning Point Action, a conservative youth organization.
In his victory statement after the primary, Toth framed the race as a referendum on representation. "This campaign has been a referendum on representatives who campaign one way and govern another, and the people have spoken," he said.
Toth's campaign touted his conservative credentials, including his efforts to enforce border security, ban "critical race theory," and protect Second Amendment rights. He has served in the Texas House since 2012, with a brief hiatus, and was widely regarded as one of the most conservative members of the chamber.
Beyond politics, Toth is an ordained pastor and owns a pool business. He has told The Texas Tribune that he plans to join the House Freedom Caucus once sworn into Congress.
The 2nd District race was one of several closely watched contests in Texas this cycle. In neighboring districts, Republicans faced similar challenges, as seen in Trever Nehls's win to succeed his twin brother. Democrats made gains in other parts of the state, but Toth's victory helps maintain the GOP's footprint in the Houston suburbs.
Toth's win comes amid a broader national conversation about the direction of the Republican Party. His alignment with Trump and the Freedom Caucus signals a continued push for more confrontational conservatism in Congress.
