Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, is trailing his Democratic challenger James Talarico by two points in a new survey, signaling a highly competitive race in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in decades.
The poll, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, shows Talarico with 47 percent support among likely voters, compared to Paxton's 45 percent. Six percent remain undecided, and 2 percent back another candidate. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, making the contest a statistical tie.
Favorability Gaps
The survey also reveals a significant gap in how voters view the two candidates. Talarico is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent, while Paxton's numbers are notably worse: 39 percent favorable and 57 percent unfavorable. Only small shares of voters—7 percent for Talarico and 4 percent for Paxton—say they do not know enough to form an opinion.
These findings align with a recent Fox News poll that also showed Talarico up by 3 points, adding to Democratic hopes of an upset in the Lone Star State. Decision Desk HQ rates the race as a toss-up, though its forecast gives Paxton a slight edge in November.
Paxton's Path to the Nomination
Paxton secured the Republican nomination after a bruising primary runoff against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with a crucial endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Trump has carried Texas easily in each of his three presidential runs, and Republicans are betting on his coattails to boost Paxton. However, Paxton's campaign has been shadowed by a 2023 impeachment in the Texas House on corruption and bribery charges, for which he was later acquitted in the state Senate.
Democrats, meanwhile, are counting on Paxton's legal troubles and Talarico's appeal to independents and moderate Republicans to tip the balance. The new poll suggests that Trump's own standing in Texas may be fragile: 55 percent of likely voters view him unfavorably, compared to 44 percent who view him favorably.
The race has also drawn attention to broader issues, including artificial intelligence oversight amid Texas's data center boom, an area where both candidates have staked out positions. Additionally, Paxton's recent abrupt exit from a press conference raised questions about his campaign's transparency.
With the general election approaching, both campaigns are intensifying their efforts. The Texas Southern University poll was conducted July 27-30 among 1,200 likely voters, providing a snapshot of a race that could have national implications. If Talarico wins, it would mark a historic Democratic pickup in a state that has been reliably red in recent cycles.
Political analysts note that the race remains fluid, with many voters still undecided. The outcome may hinge on turnout in key urban and suburban areas, where Democrats have made inroads in recent years. As economic concerns mount, the national political climate could also play a role in shaping the final result.
