A fresh survey from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Research and Survey Center, released Wednesday, indicates that Democratic candidates are ahead of their Republican rivals in three of the state's most hotly contested congressional districts. The polls, conducted among likely voters in the 15th, 28th, and 34th districts, all located in South Texas with majority-Latino populations, suggest a potential shift in the political landscape as the November midterms approach.
34th District: Gonzalez Holds Narrow Edge
In the 34th District, which hugs a large stretch of the Gulf Coast, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leads his GOP challenger Eric Flores by 3 points, 48% to 45%, according to the poll. About 8% of respondents remain undecided, while 5% back third-party candidates. The race is rated a “Toss Up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, making it a key pickup opportunity for Republicans.
15th District: Pulido Ahead of Incumbent
In the 15th District, Democrat Bobby Pulido, a former Tejano music star, holds a 5-point advantage over incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, with 50% support to her 45%. Another 5% of likely voters are undecided. This district is rated “Lean R” by Cook, but Pulido's lead suggests the seat could be in play.
28th District: Cuellar Leads Challenger
In the 28th District, the largest of the three geographically, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina by a wider margin: 45% to 34%. However, name recognition likely plays a role, as 40% of likely voters say they don't know enough about Tijerina to have an opinion. Green Party candidate Marlón Durán garners 6%, and 15% remain undecided. Cook rates this seat “Lean D.”
The results come as Republicans hold a slim six-seat majority in the U.S. House, and control of the chamber is expected to hinge on a handful of competitive races across the country. The Alaska Senate race is emerging as another key test for Democratic strategy, but Texas's southern border districts are equally critical.
The poll also found that more than half of likely voters in these districts disapprove of President Trump's job performance, a factor that could weigh on Republican candidates. In the simultaneous U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in all three districts, according to the survey. Talarico's platform has drawn sharp criticism from Republicans, but the polling suggests his message is resonating in these areas.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 18-22, with 700 likely voters in the 15th and 34th districts (margin of error ±3.7 percentage points) and 600 likely voters in the 28th District (margin of error ±4 points).
Political analysts note that these numbers could shift as the campaigns intensify, but the early leads for Democrats are notable. Voters trust Democrats more on cost-of-living issues, which may be a factor in these working-class districts. However, Republicans are expected to pour resources into these races, and the outcomes remain far from certain.
As the midterms approach, both parties are watching Texas closely, with these three districts potentially determining which party controls the House. The Democrats' performance in South Texas, a region that has trended Republican in recent cycles, will be a critical indicator of their national prospects.
