As the nation marked another Independence Day, the underlying question remains: does America still believe in the force that built it—immigration? New research suggests the answer may be more critical than ever for the states that need it most.
According to a study coauthored by John Bitzan, director of the Challey Institute at North Dakota State University, a 1 percent increase in a state's population from immigration correlates with a 1.5 percent rise in private-sector GDP, on average. But the impact varies dramatically: in states like West Virginia, Montana, and Wyoming, the same boost yields up to a 4.41 percent GDP increase. These are the very states where political debate over immigration is most heated.
The findings come as U.S. immigration levels have plummeted. Census Bureau data shows net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, fell to 1.3 million in 2025, and is projected to drop to just 321,000 by 2026—a historic low. Restrictions such as reduced green cards, travel bans, and lower refugee caps have driven the decline, often justified by concerns over state budgets and public services.
The Demographic Time Bomb
The Congressional Budget Office warns that U.S. population growth will slow to 0.1 percent per year by 2037, and without immigration, the population will begin shrinking in 2030. The ratio of working-age adults (25–64) to seniors (65+) will drop from 2.7 to 2.2 over three decades, straining Social Security and healthcare systems.
Bitzan's study, which analyzed data from 2008 to 2023, challenges the notion that immigrants are a net drain. Instead, it shows that states with small immigrant populations—like North Dakota (2.48 percent foreign-born) or Mississippi (4.02 percent)—see outsized economic gains from new arrivals. Similarly, states with high economic freedom, such as New Hampshire and South Dakota, also benefit disproportionately.
“The irony is that many of the states most worried about immigration are also those worried about population loss and workforce shortages,” Bitzan writes. “They have the strongest economic case for immigration.”
Policy Levers for States
While immigration law is federal, states can adopt policies to maximize benefits. Bitzan suggests lowering tax burdens, reducing regulations, and easing occupational licensing for newcomers. Legal battles over federal conditions have highlighted how states are already pushing back against restrictions.
The study also notes that states with less burdensome government—often traditionally red—would gain the most from reform. That aligns with recent Gallup polling showing a record 79 percent of Americans view immigration as positive.
For rural states facing public health pressures and aging populations, the choice may be clear. “Newcomers are not a cost to be absorbed,” Bitzan concludes. “They are part of the next economy waiting to be built.”
