President Trump has a strategic opening to end the war in Ukraine—and potentially the conflict with Iran—by targeting Russia's gasoline imports. Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled Russian energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and public unrest, creating leverage that Washington can exploit.
Trump should pursue a policy of peace through strength, as the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) advocated. By continuing to help Ukraine target Russian refineries while blocking Moscow's access to gasoline imports and revenue, Trump can pressure Vladimir Putin into serious negotiations. If successful, Ukraine could redirect its drone production to support the coalition against Iran, potentially securing peace in both theaters.
Ukraine's drone campaign has been devastating: strikes on at least 35 vessels in July, damage to over half of Russia's refining capacity, and attacks on an oil terminal near Saint Petersburg. Refinery run rates have hit 21-year lows, and fuel shortages are sparking fistfights at gas stations across Russia. For the first time, ordinary Russians—not just soldiers from poor regions—feel the war's cost.
Moscow has banned exports of jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel, and is scrambling for imports. Belarus has increased shipments, but Kazakhstan faces its own shortages. China recently lifted restrictions on refined product exports, a wildcard. India, a key U.S. partner, is crucial: its refineries, partly owned by Rosneft, could supply Russia. The Trump administration should use diplomacy—including tariff relief—to discourage Indian gasoline sales, while threatening sanctions on other suppliers.
Ukraine's drone industry, if freed for exports after domestic rearmament, could be a game-changer. Kyiv produces cheap, attritable drones and counter-drone systems that could degrade Iran's forces without exhausting precision munitions. Deploying counter-drone systems across the Gulf would blunt the Shahed drone threat and free ballistic-missile interceptors for other fronts.
Victory in Ukraine and enabling drone exports would also deter China. Beijing is watching Ukraine's successful strikes on Russia's shadow fleet, considering whether similar tactics from Taiwan could make a blockade or invasion untenable. Trump's strategy could prevent a third war in the Taiwan Strait.
As Graham's legacy suggests, peace through strength is achievable. By starving Russia's gas pumps, Trump can bring Putin to the table, ending two wars and potentially averting a third.
