Republican Jim Schwartzel is projected to win Florida's 19th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), defeating Democrat Victor Arias and keeping the southwest Florida seat firmly in GOP control. The victory sends the conservative media executive to Washington to succeed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who vacated the seat to run for governor.
Schwartzel emerged from a crowded August Republican primary that included several notable figures, among them former Reps. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), as well as former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis. But his toughest challenge came from Catalina Lauf, a conservative activist who had secured former President Trump's endorsement. Schwartzel captured roughly 29 percent of the primary vote to Lauf's 22 percent, a notable setback for the president's influence in the district.
Heading into Election Day, DDHQ rated the race as "safe Republican." With 76 percent of the vote counted as of Tuesday evening, Schwartzel led Arias 58.7 percent to 40.2 percent, according to DDHQ.
A longtime resident of the district and owner of a local radio station, Schwartzel emphasized his deep local roots throughout the campaign, contrasting his ties to the region with opponents who had previously sought office elsewhere. The district covers parts of Lee and Collier counties, areas that have long been a Republican stronghold in Florida.
Schwartzel also entered the final stretch with a substantial fundraising advantage. Federal Election Commission filings show he raised roughly $2.8 million, compared with less than $70,000 for Arias, underscoring the financial disparity between the two campaigns.
The win maintains the GOP's grip on a seat that has been reliably Republican for years. Donalds, who had held the seat since 2021, is now running in the Florida gubernatorial race, a contest that has drawn national attention. In other Florida races, Debbie Wasserman Schultz is projected to win the 20th District, and Democrats have secured the 24th District. The state is also watching a key Senate contest that could shape the balance of power in Washington.
Schwartzel's victory is part of a broader pattern of Republican successes in Florida's special elections, though other states have seen closer contests. In Georgia, Democrats held the 13th District, while in Kentucky, a Trump-endorsed Republican won the seat vacated by Rep. Thomas Massie. As the 2026 midterm cycle unfolds, both parties are closely watching these races for signals about the political landscape.
