Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins asserted on Wednesday that the recent surge in fertilizer prices, driven by the ongoing military conflict with Iran, will have limited immediate impact on the majority of American agricultural producers. Her assessment hinges on the claim that most farmers had already secured their supplies before the price spike.
Pre-Season Purchases Provide Buffer
During an appearance on Fox Business, Rollins told host Maria Bartiromo that approximately 80 percent of U.S. farmers had purchased their fertilizer last year in preparation for the current spring planting season. "This indicates there shouldn't be much disruption for the bulk of our producers," Rollins stated, directly addressing concerns that agricultural stability could be undermined by global supply chain pressures.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Drives Costs
The price increases are a direct consequence of Iran's military restricting maritime traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes that began on February 28. According to shipping monitors, vessel traffic through the strait has plummeted from a normal daily average of 60 ships to just five over a recent 24-hour period. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reports that one-third of all global seaborne fertilizer trade passed through this chokepoint in 2024, with over two-thirds of that volume being urea, a key nitrogen-based nutrient.
Data from agricultural analytics firm DTN shows that as of Wednesday, prices for six of the eight major fertilizer types were higher than last month. UAN28 was up 15 percent, while urea had risen 11 percent to an average of $677 per ton.
Administration Policy Responses
For the estimated 20 percent of farmers facing higher input costs, Rollins highlighted two recent policy actions by the Trump administration. On March 13, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control eased restrictions on importing petrochemical products, including fertilizers and precursor chemicals, from Venezuela. "We've opened up lines from Venezuela," Rollins said, framing it as a measure to diversify supply.
Additionally, last Wednesday the administration issued a 60-day waiver of the century-old Jones Act, which mandates that cargo shipped between U.S. ports must be transported on American-flagged vessels. The waiver is intended to increase domestic shipping flexibility for fertilizers and other commodities.
Broader Energy Market Context
The fertilizer crunch is part of a wider energy shock stemming from the Iran conflict. The disruption of Middle Eastern shipping has driven up global oil prices, leading to a sharp increase in costs for American consumers. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline surpassed $3.98 on Wednesday, more than a dollar higher than a month ago, a surge detailed in our report on U.S. gasoline prices. This economic pressure occurs alongside other significant political developments, including the recent confirmation of a new Homeland Security Secretary.
The administration's approach to the crisis has drawn both defense and criticism. While officials like Governor Doug Burgum have defended the energy strategy, the political fallout is evident, with the President's approval rating facing downward pressure amid the dual challenges of conflict and inflation.
Rollins' comments represent an effort to project stability in a key economic sector, even as the administration deploys regulatory tools to manage a volatile situation with global origins and domestic consequences.
