A fresh survey from The New York Times and Siena College finds Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) ahead of independent challenger Dan Osborn by 6 points among likely voters, 49 percent to 43 percent, as the campaign enters its final stretch.
This marks the second consecutive Senate cycle in Nebraska without a Democratic nominee. In both 2024 and 2026, state Democrats backed Osborn instead of fielding their own candidate, betting that an independent could outperform a partisan in a deeply red state.
The poll reveals that voters largely view Osborn through a Democratic lens. Fifty-five percent of respondents said he is more aligned with Democrats, while 33 percent see him as a true independent and just 4 percent as closer to Republicans. That perception could be costly in a state where 71 percent of voters express dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party.
Despite that, Osborn remains competitive, trailing by only 6 points in a state that Donald Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2024. Trump's approval rating in the poll is narrowly underwater, with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.
Osborn's 2024 bid against Sen. Deb Fischer (R) ended in a similarly close 6-point loss, surprising many. But since then, Republicans have had time to define him, and the poll suggests that has taken a toll on his image.
The strategy of backing independents is being tried elsewhere. In South Dakota and Idaho, Democrats are supporting independent challengers to GOP Sens. Mike Rounds and Jim Risch. In Montana, a similar effort to back independent Seth Bodnar was complicated when Democrat Alani Bankhead won her primary and refused to exit the race.
While Ricketts leads the Senate contest, Democrats are showing unexpected strength in Nebraska's House races. They are heavily favored to flip the 2nd Congressional District and are also contesting the 1st District, held by Rep. Mike Flood (R), which Trump won by double digits in 2024. A recent national poll shows Democrats leading by 8 points, suggesting a favorable environment for the party.
Trump visited Nebraska in early October to rally for Ricketts, part of a broader effort to shore up GOP incumbents in states where the party is facing unexpected challenges. Similar dynamics have emerged in Alaska, where GOP officials have raised concerns about independent candidates.
The Times/Siena poll was conducted Oct. 23-29 among 809 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
