The 2026 tax filing deadline has come and gone, but tax professionals are already urging Americans to look ahead—especially in light of the sweeping tax code changes enacted under the Trump administration’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB).
That legislation, which overhauled key parts of the tax system, is expected to produce “very large” refunds for many households, thanks in part to a midyear increase in the standard deduction. But here’s the catch: those changes were not baked into the withholding tables employers use, meaning many workers may have been overpaying all year.
What Is Withholding and Why It Matters
Withholding refers to the amount your employer deducts from each paycheck to cover federal income taxes. Self-employed individuals who pay estimated taxes quarterly should also revisit their numbers. The goal is to avoid a big surprise at filing time—either a hefty bill or an unnecessarily large refund that could have been pocketed sooner.
“If a taxpayer received a significantly larger income tax refund because of provisions in the OBBB, then they should consider adjusting their withholding,” said Adam Brewer, a tax attorney with AB Tax Law.
The IRS offers a free online tool—the Tax Withholding Estimator—that lets workers and retirees model how different withholding amounts affect their final tax bill. The agency says proper adjustments can “prevent owing money and potential penalties at tax time” and can “adjust withholding to increase take-home pay instead of waiting for a refund.”
New Breaks and Deductions Under OBBB
The OBBB didn’t just boost the standard deduction. It also expanded or created several targeted tax breaks: an increased Child Tax Credit, a new senior deduction, deductions for tips and overtime pay, and modifications to the SALT cap. Any of these could have inflated a taxpayer’s refund.
Brewer added: “This isn’t for everyone, but a taxpayer experiencing a significant tax savings because of ‘no tax on tips,’ ‘no tax on overtime,’ or a similar provision should adjust their withholding to put more money in their pocket throughout the tax year.”
The advice comes as the Trump administration continues to reshape federal policy in other areas. For instance, the White House recently used an Iran ceasefire to sidestep a War Powers Act deadline, a move that sparked fresh tensions with Congress. Meanwhile, the president’s campaign to replace independent experts with loyalists is remaking the federal bureaucracy.
How to Get Started
To use the IRS withholding tool, workers will need their most recent pay stub, a copy of their last tax return, and an estimate of their 2026 income. The tool then calculates the ideal withholding amount and provides a new W-4 form to submit to an employer.
For those who saw a major refund bump this year, Brewer’s message is clear: don’t wait. Adjusting now could mean bigger paychecks all year long—and no surprises come next April.
