The old adage that victory has many fathers but defeat is an orphan rarely holds in politics, where blame is eagerly assigned. Should Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) fall to Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the Senate race, the search for culprits will be intense, with fingers pointing at Paxton himself, Senator John Cornyn, and even former President Donald Trump.
Paxton, who has spent 23 years in public office, carries a heavy load of personal and professional controversies that have made him one of the most polarizing figures in Texas politics. Unlike Trump, who has leveraged charisma to weather scandals, Paxton's campaign style is often described as flat and unengaging, lacking the appeal needed to rally voters beyond his base.
Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the GOP primary, has openly criticized his rival, breaking with his typically restrained political demeanor. While Cornyn's warnings about Paxton's electability have resonated with some conservative and suburban voters, it's unlikely Paxton would have sought his help anyway, given their long-standing feud. Paxton was already well-known to Texas voters before Cornyn's attacks, and his 2018 reelection was the weakest for a statewide Republican in over a decade, a sign that his vulnerabilities predate this cycle.
Trump's role is more complex. On one hand, his policies have contributed to high fuel prices, angering working-class voters, while his proposed stimulus checks may alienate fiscal conservatives. On the other, Trump's approval in Texas remains near break-even, and he recently headlined a fundraiser for Paxton, dubbing him a 'schmuck' in need of help—a backhanded boost that nonetheless brought in significant cash and attention.
Democrats see an opportunity. Talarico, a progressive from Austin, has criticized Paxton over his legal troubles and ties to corporate interests, and has even drawn support from Epstein survivors who are pressing Paxton to sue the DOJ over redacted files. But Talarico faces his own primary challenge from Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who is actively working against him, complicating the Democratic path.
Paxton's campaign has also been dogged by other controversies, including a lawsuit from SpaceX seeking to keep tax deal records secret, and his role in a custody fight that reached the Supreme Court. These issues, combined with his record on abortion and social media regulation, have kept him in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons.
Even with Trump's endorsement and a rally in Dallas, Paxton's prospects look bleak. A Libertarian candidate could siphon off conservative votes, making a plurality win the best-case scenario. If Paxton loses, he may set a new record for worst GOP statewide performance, a dubious legacy that would likely be blamed on many—but ultimately, the responsibility lies with the candidate himself.
