The race for Ohio's governor's mansion, long a Republican stronghold, has tightened into a genuine toss-up, with Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent surveys. A CNN poll released Thursday put Acton eight points ahead, following a New York Times/Siena College survey that showed her up by four points. Decision Desk HQ's polling average now gives Acton a lead of roughly four points, rating the contest as too close to call.
The open seat, being vacated by term-limited Republican Governor Mike DeWine, is drawing national attention as part of a broader midterm battlefield. Republicans are playing defense not only here but also in a competitive Senate race and several House districts that have historically leaned red. President Trump's cross-country campaign blitz has included stops in Ohio, where he rallied for Ramaswamy near Dayton last weekend. Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Lima on Friday, and Trump is scheduled to appear in Youngstown on Monday to support Senator Jon Husted, who is facing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in a critical Senate contest.
Political analysts see the high-profile visits as a sign of GOP nervousness. "I think Republicans are clearly very concerned about Ohio," said Justin Buchler, an associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University. "There are a set of races that they probably expected to be safer, and they are seeing a few of those races, if not slip away, then certainly look more precarious for them, and you can see that by where Trump and Vance are going."
Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur who ran for president in 2024, has secured endorsements from DeWine, Vance, and Trump. He was a vocal ally of Trump during the primary and later co-led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with Elon Musk. With an estimated net worth of $2.3 billion, he has partially self-funded his campaign. However, Republicans are facing significant headwinds, including Trump's declining approval ratings and the historical pattern of losses for the party holding the White House in midterms.
Acton, a physician and former director of the Ohio Department of Health, worked with DeWine during the pandemic, and her campaign highlights her bipartisan record. "The governor's race is very unusual because we have unusual candidates for each party... neither of them are really conventional candidates," noted Buchler. The contest has turned increasingly negative, with Acton's campaign painting Ramaswamy as an out-of-touch billionaire, while Republican groups have accused Acton of substance abuse, claims she has called "horrible." No debate has been scheduled.
The Senate race between Husted and Brown is also a toss-up, with Brown leading by six points in the CNN poll and four in the NYT survey, while a co/efficient poll showed Husted ahead by one point. Acton's campaign manager, Philip Stein, said the numbers indicate "Ohioans are ready for a change." But Ohio GOP consultant Matt Dole insists the fundamentals favor Republicans: "It's a Republican state and more red in midterm elections, and that serves Vivek Ramaswamy and John Husted and the Republicans up and down the ticket well."
Still, some observers point to Trump's slipping popularity in Ohio as a wildcard. Robert Alexander, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University, said the tight polls and the barrage of ads and visits suggest "those polls probably aren't too far off, and that they also expect a very close race." He added that Trump "is not what he was certainly two years ago," which could trigger a "backlash effect" from disaffected Republicans or independents.
At a rally in Lima, Vance urged voters to back both Husted and Ramaswamy, saying Republicans "need" Ramaswamy to win "because he is running against a crazy person." In Vandalia, Trump told supporters to "go out and vote" regardless of their feelings about the candidates. With less than a month to go, the outcome in Ohio could hinge on turnout and the national mood.
