Political commentator Bill O'Reilly has weighed in on the Texas Senate race, predicting that Republican Ken Paxton will prevail over Democrat James Talarico. In an interview on NewsNation's "On Balance" with Leland Vittert, O'Reilly said, "If I had to go by my gut, I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that Paxton will win in Texas because Talarico is just too much for that state." He added, "He's just too much. And Paxton is kind of smart just to hammer him and hammer him and hammer him because Paxton doesn't really have much of a resume."
O'Reilly's comments come as the race between Paxton and Talarico heats up ahead of the November general election. Paxton, who has served as Texas Attorney General since 2015, secured the GOP nomination after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a May runoff. O'Reilly attributed Paxton's primary win to his alignment with former President Trump, noting that Cornyn "wasn't loyal enough" to Trump on key legislative priorities like the SAVE America Act. "Paxton is a MAGA guy down the lane, and so he got the endorsement," O'Reilly said.
Despite Paxton's political advantages, O'Reilly acknowledged his vulnerabilities. "I don't know anything that Paxton's done to improve the lives of Texans, as you well put it, and he's done a lot of things that are dubious," he said. "So in a normal race, he'd lose by a lot, but it's not normal." Paxton's tenure has been marred by controversy, including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on 20 articles alleging bribery, abuse of power, and retaliation against whistleblowers. He was acquitted by the state Senate later that year, with only two Republicans joining Democrats to convict on some counts.
On the other side, Talarico, a state representative, is running in a favorable political climate. Democrats are leading on generic congressional ballots, Trump's approval ratings are slumping, and the ongoing conflict in Iran has become increasingly unpopular. According to Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, Talarico holds a 55 percent chance of winning, compared to Paxton's 45 percent as of Sunday.
The race has drawn national attention, with Trump formally endorsing Paxton in May, a move that underscored the former president's influence in Republican primaries. Trump criticized Cornyn as "VERY disloyal" and lacking fight for the SAVE America Act. Cornyn had also opposed eliminating the filibuster to pass the legislation, further alienating Trump loyalists.
Talarico has sought to capitalize on Paxton's legal troubles and ethics concerns, while also addressing local issues. He has been endorsed by Epstein survivors, who are demanding Paxton sue the Justice Department over redacted files, and has taken a conditional stance on transgender athletes in girls' sports. Meanwhile, Paxton has faced criticism over his handling of a SpaceX lawsuit and a standoff with Minnesota over extradition.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates are expected to intensify their messaging. O'Reilly's prediction reflects a broader sentiment among some conservatives that Talarico's progressive platform may not resonate with Texas voters. However, the race remains competitive, with both campaigns vying for undecided voters in a state that has seen shifting demographics and political dynamics.
