New polling data released this week suggests that control of the U.S. Senate is very much in play this November, with Democrats showing surprising strength in half a dozen key states. The New York Times/Siena College surveys, conducted from June 15 to June 29, indicate that Democratic candidates are either leading or within striking distance in races across Texas, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and North Carolina.
In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper holds a 7-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, 50 percent to 43 percent, in the contest to replace retiring Senator Thom Tillis. That marks the largest margin among the battlegrounds surveyed. Meanwhile, in Maine, progressive Graham Platner is up 2 points over incumbent Republican Susan Collins, 49 percent to 47 percent, a race already drawing heavy outside spending. The GOP outspends Democrats 4-to-1 in Maine Senate race, Platner campaign warns.
Texas remains a toss-up, with Democrat James Talarico and state Attorney General Ken Paxton tied at 47 percent each. Democrats are energized by Paxton's victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary, viewing the controversial prosecutor as a vulnerable nominee. In Iowa, Democratic state Representative Josh Turek trails Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by just 2 points, 46 percent to 48 percent, for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst. Hinson has the backing of former President Donald Trump.
Alaska's Senate race is also tight, with Democrat Mary Peltola 2 points behind incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, 45 percent to 47 percent, though the state's primary is not until mid-August. In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is 3 points behind Republican Senator Jon Husted, 47 percent to 50 percent, making it one of the few true toss-ups alongside Alaska and Maine. A new AARP poll shows Democrats leading in Ohio governor and Senate races, adding to the optimism for the party.
The surveys, which included roughly 600 likely voters per state and carry a margin of error of about 5 percentage points, are a strong sign for Democrats. They hope to capitalize on voter frustration with President Trump and the economy, while benefiting from the historical trend of a sitting president's party losing ground in midterm elections. Decision Desk HQ's aggregate shows Democrats with a 4-point advantage on a generic congressional ballot.
However, the same New York Times/Siena survey indicates that Republicans would be favored to hold the Senate if the election were held today. Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the chamber this fall. The five Senate seats poised to flip in November midterms include several of these battlegrounds, underscoring the high stakes.
Democrats are also eyeing broader political dynamics, including a coordinated oversight push. Democrats plan coordinated oversight blitz in 2027, targeting administration and business allies, which could shape the narrative beyond the midterms. For now, the focus remains on these tight races, where every point could determine the balance of power in Washington.
