A new poll reveals the race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire is a virtual tie, positioning the contest as one of the most competitive Senate battles of the cycle. According to an Emerson College Polling survey conducted from March 21-23, Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas holds a nominal one-point lead over former Republican Senator John E. Sununu, a margin well within the survey's error range.
A Statistical Deadlock
In a hypothetical general election matchup, Pappas receives 45% support among likely voters compared to Sununu's 44%. With 11% of voters undecided or preferring another candidate, and a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, the two candidates are effectively locked in a dead heat. This finding underscores the state's status as a premier political battleground.
The poll reveals significant demographic divides. Pappas leads among women by nine points (49% to 40%), while Sununu holds a six-point advantage among men (48% to 42%). A pronounced generational split is also evident: voters under 40 back Pappas by a 23-point margin, and voters over 70 support him by six points. However, Sununu commands a 12-point lead among voters in their 50s and 60s.
Republican Primary Landscape
On the Republican side, Sununu appears to be the clear frontrunner for his party's nomination, capturing nearly 48% support among likely GOP primary voters. Former Senator Scott Brown trails distantly with 19%. However, with 33% of primary voters still undecided, the race is not yet settled. The survey of Republican primary voters carries a margin of error of 4.2 points.
Should Brown manage to close the gap and win the primary, the general election dynamics would shift. The same poll shows Pappas leading Brown by a more comfortable nine-point margin, 48% to 39%.
Strategic Context and Recruitment
Republicans scored a major recruitment victory last fall when Sununu, who previously served one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, entered the race. His candidacy ended speculation that his brother, popular former Governor Chris Sununu, would seek the seat after the governor declined to run last April.
Despite the poll showing a tie, nonpartisan analysts currently give Democrats a slight edge. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as "Lean Democrat," reflecting the state's recent electoral history and the advantage of incumbency that Pappas brings from his congressional district. The contest will test whether a proliferation of new political action committees focused on supporting or opposing candidates with ties to the previous administration will influence key races like this one.
The outcome may also hinge on broader national issues, including debates over healthcare price transparency and the political fallout from international conflicts, where former administration officials have defended military actions despite domestic economic consequences.
The Emerson College survey interviewed 1,000 likely New Hampshire general election voters and an oversample of 524 likely Republican primary voters. With control of the narrowly divided Senate at stake, the New Hampshire race is poised to attract massive national attention and spending, making it a central focus for both parties through November.
