Republicans are heading back to Capitol Hill after a bruising midterm election, and the fallout could upend the already delicate negotiations over keeping the government funded past December 11. Lawmakers in both parties had hoped to avoid a shutdown, but the political landscape has shifted dramatically, with President Trump's unpredictable response to potential GOP losses adding a new layer of uncertainty.
Congress has already passed a continuing resolution to buy time until December 11, but with only a few weeks left before that deadline, the odds of completing all twelve appropriations bills are slim. Most lawmakers expect another short-term patch, but the election results could change the calculus for Republicans who may soon lose their majority. As one Democratic appropriator put it, the GOP's behavior after the election is anyone's guess.
“I don't know if there's going to be a shutdown because I have no idea how crazy Republicans are going to act and the things that they're going to present that are just going to make working families' lives more difficult and more unaffordable,” said Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.), a retiring member of the House Appropriations Committee. “I don't know if they're going to give a darn one way or the other after the election.”
Republicans, for their part, are pointing fingers at Democrats. Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) blamed Senate Democrats for the longest shutdown in U.S. history last year and insisted his priority remains passing conservative spending bills. “Whether or not there is a government shutdown is entirely up to Senate Democrats,” he said in a statement.
The compressed timeline is a major hurdle. Lawmakers return on November 9, leaving just two weeks before Thanksgiving recess, with a crowded agenda that includes the National Defense Authorization Act, a farm bill, and other priorities. The House has only passed three of the twelve spending bills—those covering military construction, veterans affairs, State, and agriculture—which are considered the easiest. Tougher fights loom over funding for Homeland Security, Defense, and Health and Human Services, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will face resistance from both sides of the aisle.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) downplayed shutdown fears, saying, “Congress has made a tradition out of kicking the can down the road until December and passing a Christmas omnibus or continuing resolution.” But Democrats are pushing for a full-year funding package. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) said his party prefers to finish all twelve bills, though he acknowledged a CR might be necessary. “I don't foresee a shutdown, but things have surprised me in Washington,” he added.
The stakes are high for both parties. A shutdown would likely backfire on whoever is blamed, as Cuellar noted: “When you have a shutdown, one party thinks they're winning before they realize that we're not winning, and then the other side thinks they're winning before they realize that they were not winning.” House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) echoed that sentiment, saying no one wants a shutdown and that Democrats are ready to finish the work. “The American people want us to address the cost of living crisis and rein in this corrupt administration,” she said.
As the clock ticks down, the post-election showdown over Pentagon funding and other priorities will test whether Congress can avoid a crisis. Meanwhile, the FEC's online filing system outage during the midterms has raised concerns about election integrity, and polling shows 40% of Americans report worsening personal finances, adding pressure on lawmakers to act.
