Republicans' bruising midterm performance could upend the already delicate government funding negotiations in the lame-duck session, as lawmakers return to Washington next week facing a Dec. 11 deadline and a looming question: how will President Trump react to potential GOP losses?
Congress has already passed a stopgap spending bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), that keeps the government funded through Dec. 11. Both parties have signaled they expect to pass another short-term extension if they can't finish work on all 12 appropriations bills, and most insiders consider a shutdown unlikely. But the election results could shift the political calculus, with Trump emerging as an unpredictable force if Republicans are forced to reckon with losing control of the House or Senate next year.
The final weeks of the year may be Republicans' last chance to advance key legislative priorities before Democrats possibly take the gavel. "I don't know if there's going to be a shutdown because I have no idea how crazy Republicans are going to act and the things that they're going to present that are just going to make working families' lives more difficult and more unaffordable," said Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.), a retiring Appropriations Committee member. "I don't know if they're going to give a darn one way or the other after the election."
Watson Coleman added, "I suspect that Republicans are very interested in waiting to see what happens on Election Day, and therefore, what climate are they going to operate under. And I think that we should be prepared for some very difficult discussions and difficult maneuvers on the part of the Republicans."
Republicans, however, are pointing fingers at Democrats. Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), also on the Appropriations Committee, said in a statement: "Whether or not there is a government shutdown is entirely up to Senate Democrats, who inflicted the longest government shutdown in U.S. history on the American people last year." He added, "My priority remains passing the most conservative and fiscally responsible appropriations bills possible, and I look forward to completing that work when we return to Washington in the coming weeks."
Lawmakers return Nov. 9, leaving just two weeks before Thanksgiving recess, with a crowded agenda that includes the annual defense policy bill, a farm bill, and other must-pass items. The House has passed only three of the 12 appropriations bills—covering military construction and veterans affairs, the State Department, and agriculture and rural development—which are considered the easiest lifts. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will face far tougher resistance, both from Democrats and his own right flank, when the debate turns to funding agencies like Homeland Security, Defense, and Health and Human Services.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) downplayed shutdown fears, saying, "We think the odds of a shutdown are low." She noted, "Congress has made a tradition out of kicking the can down the road until December and passing a Christmas omnibus or continuing resolution." Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), ranking member of the Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, said Democrats prefer to finish all 12 bills rather than pass another CR. "Now we don't know how the Republicans are going to react, if they would like to finish it. I hope we can do that, and we're going to do everything to work something out, so we don't have another CR. If we have to, we'll do it, but you know we prefer not to do it, and certainly we don't want to have a shutdown. I don't foresee a shutdown, but things have surprised me in Washington," Cuellar said.
Cuellar warned that a shutdown would hurt both parties: "When you have a shutdown, one party thinks they're winning before they realize that we're not winning, and then the other side thinks they're winning before they realize that they were not winning, and that's what you know makes those shutdowns long and dangerous. But at the end of the day, you know, it's the American public that loses." House Appropriations ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) echoed that sentiment, saying in a statement, "Both Democrats and Republicans have expressed a desire to finish full-year funding bills before the end of this calendar year, and I am ready to do just that. The American people want us to address the cost of living crisis and rein in this corrupt administration. With Democrats widely expected to be in the majority, we want to hit the ground running in the new year — not be forced to finish the work this Congress failed to complete."
As the clock ticks, the political stakes are high. A shutdown would likely have negative consequences for both parties, but the looming presence of Trump—and the possibility of a post-election legal fight over results, as Democrats brace for legal battles—adds a layer of unpredictability. The coming weeks will test whether the two sides can avoid a crisis, or whether the lame-duck session becomes another battleground in an already volatile political climate.
