A fresh KSTP/SurveyUSA poll signals that businessman Mike Lindell and commentator Michele Tafoya are building commanding leads in Minnesota's Republican primaries for governor and the U.S. Senate, respectively. The survey, released this week, shows the GOP frontrunners expanding their margins even as the Democratic primary contests remain competitive.
In the gubernatorial primary, Lindell holds 35 percent support among likely Republican voters, nine points ahead of House Speaker Lisa Demuth, who sits at 26 percent. GOP-endorsed candidate Kendall Qualls trails in third with 11 percent. Notably, 22 percent of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for shifts before the August 11 primary.
Lindell, the founder of MyPillow and a prominent election fraud conspiracy theorist, recently secured a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who called him “one of America’s greatest and most hard working patriots” on Truth Social. That backing appears to have energized his base, though legal troubles linger. A federal judge in Minnesota ruled against Lindell last year over his claims that Smartmatic voting machines were used to rig the 2020 election.
Last month, Lindell tapped retired Navy Lieutenant Commander Phillip Parish as his running mate after Parish ended his own gubernatorial bid. The pair aim to flip the governor’s office, currently held by Democrat Tim Walz, who is not seeking a third term. Walz, the former vice presidential hopeful, has faced sharp criticism over the state’s massive fraud scandal, with prosecutors alleging up to $9 billion was stolen through fraudulent meal assistance and other programs.
In the Senate primary, Tafoya leads by a staggering 30 points, drawing 41 percent support. The former sports radio host and political commentator hopes to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith, a Democrat. Her nearest competitor, former NBA player Royce White, garners just 10 percent. Navy veteran Tom Weller follows at 7 percent, while combat veteran Adam Schwarze, backed by the state GOP, trails at 5 percent. Over a quarter of voters—28 percent—are still undecided.
The Republican primaries are shaping up as key battlegrounds in a state that has trended Democratic in recent cycles. The August 11 contests will set the stage for general election fights in a politically divided Minnesota.
Meanwhile, national dynamics continue to influence local races. A Trump-appointed judge recently rejected a challenge to Minnesota’s sanctuary policies, underscoring ongoing tensions over immigration enforcement. And as the GOP looks to capitalize on Walz’s vulnerabilities, the fraud scandal remains a central issue.
With both Lindell and Tafoya widening their leads, the path to the GOP nomination appears increasingly clear—but the undecided voters in both primaries could still alter the trajectory before Election Day.
