Democratic socialist state Representative Francesca Hong has opened a commanding 22-point lead in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor, less than two weeks before the August 13 contest, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.
The survey of 407 likely Democratic primary voters shows Hong at 38 percent, well ahead of former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes at 16 percent and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 7 percent. No other candidate cracked 5 percent. More than a third of respondents—34 percent—remain undecided, leaving room for late shifts.
Hong's support has surged since last week's Marquette poll, which had her at 26 percent. That earlier survey included former Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out earlier this month amid scrutiny of her campaign finances. When Rodriguez supporters were asked for their second choice, Hong picked up an additional point to reach 27 percent. Barnes also improved from 15 percent to 18 percent when Rodriguez backers were reallocated.
The latest numbers suggest outgoing Governor Tony Evers's endorsement of Crowley has done little to move the needle. Crowley's support remains in the single digits, and a large undecided bloc indicates the race is still fluid.
Demographics and Second-Choice Dynamics
The poll reveals a sharp generational and ideological divide. Hong draws her strongest support from younger voters and those who identify as "very liberal," and those ties have strengthened since the previous survey. Barnes and Crowley, by contrast, perform better among older voters.
When asked about their second-choice candidate, 40 percent of respondents said they were undecided. Among those who picked someone, 20 percent chose Barnes, 13 percent Crowley, 12 percent state Senator Kelda Roys, just 8 percent Hong, and 7 percent former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan.
General Election Matchups
The poll did not test hypothetical head-to-head matchups between Democratic candidates and the presumptive Republican nominee, Representative Tom Tiffany. But last week's Marquette survey did, and it suggested Barnes would be the strongest general-election candidate, leading Tiffany 44 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided. However, all five Democrats tested fell within the poll's 4.5-point margin of error, meaning the race against Tiffany remains highly competitive regardless of the nominee.
Some Democrats worry that nominating a self-described democratic socialist could jeopardize the party's hold on the governor's mansion in a purple state that will be a key battleground in November. Hong has sought to distance herself from the national Democratic Socialists of America, stating during Tuesday's primary debate that she is not a member of the national chapter and does not support all of its positions, according to WisPolitics. The GOP is already planning to weaponize democratic socialist labels in the 2026 midterms, as reported by The World Signal.
Hong's insurgent campaign represents the biggest test yet for the far-left wing in a statewide primary in a swing state. A victory would be a major boost for the Democratic Socialists of America, which has already scored House primary wins in safely blue districts this summer. But it also raises questions about the constitutional oath dilemma facing democratic socialists after recent platform changes, as noted in our coverage.
The Marquette University Law School poll was conducted July 22-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points for the Democratic primary sample.
