New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) holds a 10-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in the race for a second full term, according to a Siena College poll released this week. The survey, conducted Aug. 3-6 among 811 likely voters, shows Hochul with 49 percent support to Blakeman's 39 percent, with 1 percent backing another candidate and 11 percent undecided or refusing to answer. The margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.
Hochul, who became governor in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual harassment allegations, has never won a statewide election as governor. A victory in November would mark the sixth consecutive Democratic win in New York's gubernatorial contests, a streak that reflects the state's deep blue tilt in recent cycles.
While Hochul's lead remains outside the poll's margin of error, the race has tightened significantly. In Siena's June survey, Hochul led Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, by 20 points (52-32). The new numbers suggest Blakeman has consolidated Republican support while making inroads with independents.
Indeed, the poll shows Blakeman leading Hochul among independents, 45-40, though that edge is just outside the margin of error. Both candidates have locked up their party bases, with Hochul drawing 80 percent of Democrats and Blakeman capturing 84 percent of Republicans.
Economic concerns loom large in the campaign, as New York remains one of the most expensive states in the nation, with housing costs a major driver. On the question of who would better handle affordability, 48 percent of 691 respondents chose Hochul, while 41 percent picked Blakeman. On affordable housing supply specifically, Hochul's advantage widens: 51 percent backed her, versus 35 percent for Blakeman.
The survey's findings on independent voters could signal trouble for Hochul, who has sought to project a moderate image while navigating the state's progressive wing. Blakeman, a former county executive and longtime Republican operative, has hammered Hochul on crime, taxes, and the state's handling of the migrant crisis.
Political analysts note that New York's gubernatorial races have historically favored incumbents, and Hochul's double-digit lead, while shrinking, still gives her a comfortable cushion. However, the trend in Siena's polling suggests the race could become competitive if Blakeman continues to close the gap, particularly if national headwinds for Democrats persist.
With the election less than three months away, both campaigns are likely to sharpen their attacks. Hochul is expected to highlight her record on infrastructure and gun safety, while Blakeman will focus on economic frustration and public safety. The next round of polling will show whether Blakeman's momentum is real or a statistical blip.
