Ken Paxton's primary victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn has put Hispanic voters at the center of the Texas Senate race, as Democrats see a rare opportunity to flip a statewide seat in the 2026 midterms. The contest between Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico is expected to hinge on whether Democrats can win back the Latino voters who shifted sharply toward Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
According to Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, “The Latino vote is the biggest swing vote in Texas, so whoever wins them in big numbers is going to be victorious.” Recent national polls suggest Democrats are regaining support among nonwhite and Hispanic voters after Trump made significant inroads with those groups in 2024. A Pew Research Center survey released this month found that Trump’s approval rating among Latinos who voted for him in 2024 dropped by 27 points since the start of his second term, falling to 66 percent in April. The same survey showed Trump’s overall approval among Latinos at just 22 percent, a 14-point decline from earlier this year.
Texas has long been a battleground for Latino voters, who have historically favored Democrats but have trended rightward in recent presidential elections. In 2016, Trump won 34 percent of the Latino vote in Texas; that rose to 41 percent in 2020 and 55 percent in 2024—a record for a Republican presidential candidate in the state. “Democrats are used to getting between 50 and 60 percent of the Latino vote,” Rottinghaus said. “That’s been good enough to keep them competitive, but Republicans have made inroads in some areas, and that’s given the Democrats serious heartburn.” However, he added, “The numbers are swinging back, so current polling has Democrats rebounding in the Latino community and recovering some of the losses that happened in 2024.”
Much of that rebound is tied to the economy. Decision Desk HQ elections analyst Eric Cunningham noted that consumer sentiment is worse now than during the Great Recession, which could drive voters away from the incumbent party. “Voters are very unhappy about the economy. I would be shocked if it’s not close,” Cunningham said, referring to the November race. He expects Democrats to target South Texas, a region with a large Hispanic population where the party lost ground in recent elections. “Logically, it’s easier to win over voters who voted for you before than to win over ones that have never voted for you,” he said, adding that the key question is whether the recent Republican shift in South Texas is temporary or permanent.
Cunningham emphasized that Talarico must also appeal to Trump-skeptical suburban and urban voters, but “I don’t think there’s any scenario where James Talarico wins where he doesn’t win back those counties in South Texas. It’s kind of essential.”
Despite the Democratic optimism, a new UnidosUS survey of Latino voters across the U.S. and in 32 competitive congressional districts shows that 54 percent plan to vote for a Democratic House candidate in November, with 27 percent backing Republicans and 19 percent undecided. That 54 percent share matches what Democrats won among Latinos in 2024, indicating that the party has not yet fully recovered its pre-2024 support. The survey also found that one in four Latino Trump voters from 2024 say they would not vote for him again, but enthusiasm for Democratic candidates trails that of Republicans—a potential warning for turnout.
Rottinghaus said that if Latinos turn out for Talarico at a rate of 70 to 75 percent, the race could be very close. “That number has been challenging to get for Democrats, but in the modern moment, with a sour economy and an unpopular president in office, it’s possible that they can reach that number,” he said.
Cristóbal Alex, board chair of the Latino Victory Fund and senior adviser to a pro-Talarico super PAC, stressed the campaign’s focus on Hispanic voters, who helped boost Talarico in the primary against Representative Jasmine Crockett. “The Texas Senate race will be decided by Latino voters, from my hometown of El Paso to Corpus Christi,” Alex said. For more on the dynamics of the race, see Texas Democrats See Opening as Paxton Faces Talarico in Senate Race and Latino Voters Cool on Trump but Not Embracing Democrats, New Poll Shows.
