Democrats are quietly optimistic that the Texas Senate race between state Representative James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton could be their best shot in decades at a statewide win. While Paxton’s primary victory Tuesday energized the MAGA base, it also galvanized a party long frustrated by near-misses in the Lone Star State.
For years, Democratic strategists have talked up Texas as competitive, only to fall short. But this time, they point to Talarico’s appeal across party lines and Paxton’s mounting legal and political vulnerabilities. “He has uniquely attracted both Democrats and most importantly independents,” billionaire Mark Cuban told The Hill. “He just needs to keep doing what he’s doing.”
Talarico wasted no time drawing a sharp contrast. Minutes after the race was called, he released a video branding Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America.” In it, Talarico calls for unity to defeat a “corrupt system” and promises to raise wages, cut taxes, and lower costs. The video signals his campaign’s central message: a clean-government crusade against a deeply damaged incumbent.
Paxton’s baggage is substantial. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 over bribery and abuse-of-office allegations, and his legal troubles continue to dog him. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” immediately after the primary, a meaningful upgrade for Democrats. National strategists say the environment also favors Talarico. “The national conditions tend to favor the Democrats right now in this race,” said Democratic strategist Anthony Coley, pointing to voter dissatisfaction with the GOP amid high costs.
Demographics are shifting too. Recent polls show Democrats gaining ground with young and Hispanic voters, though a new survey finds Latino voters cooling on Trump but not fully embracing Democrats. Still, Talarico’s team believes he can capitalize on economic discontent and Paxton’s unpopularity. “Everyone knows who this guy is,” Coley said. “His negatives are sky-high.”
Trump has already tried to define Talarico, calling him “the worst Texas candidate I have ever seen” and mocking his dietary preferences. But Talarico has pushed back, and his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast showcased his ability to connect in long, unscripted settings—a skill that impressed strategists. “He understands he’s going to have to raise enough money to be on the air as much as possible, which is something Beto did not do,” one Democratic strategist noted, referencing Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 near-miss against Ted Cruz.
Still, the path is steep. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024. Talarico also faces attacks on his past comments, including a 2023 remark about loving “trans children” that Republicans have seized on. He has since admitted those comments were a mistake, as covered in his acknowledgment of “cringey” woke comments. Meanwhile, Senate GOP leaders are urging unity behind Paxton, as Thune called for party cohesion after the upset.
Democrats insist Talarico’s calm demeanor and faith-based messaging can break through. “He can talk like a normal person,” one strategist said. With polls showing him leading Paxton by over 8 points in a recent YouGov survey, the race is shaping up to be the most competitive Texas Senate contest in a generation.
