A fresh survey from UnidosUS, provided first to CBS News, indicates that President Trump has lost significant ground among Latino voters, but Democrats are not reaping the benefits of that shift. The poll, conducted from April 27 to May 14 among 3,000 registered Latino voters, shows a complex landscape for both parties heading into the midterms.
According to the poll, 57% of respondents said they backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, while 37% supported Trump and 6% voted for another candidate. However, a notable slice of Trump’s Latino supporters—25%—now say they either “probably would not vote for Trump again” or definitely would not back him if they had a do-over. Only 75% of those who voted for Trump expressed certainty or likelihood of supporting him again.
This buyer’s remorse among some Latino Trump voters dovetails with broader trends in recent polling. A separate Economist/YouGov survey released this week found that 57% of American respondents say they “definitely will vote” in the midterms, with 11% saying they “probably will vote” and another 11% on the fence. The midterms are shaping up as a critical test for both parties, especially after the 2024 election cycle left Democrats reeling from a string of losses.
Despite Trump’s erosion with Latino voters, Democrats are not enjoying a surge in affection. The UnidosUS poll found that only 28% of respondents hold a “very favorable” opinion of congressional Democrats, while 32% view them as “somewhat favorable.” On the flip side, 17% have a “somewhat unfavorable” view and 14% a “very unfavorable” view. This lukewarm reception mirrors the party’s internal struggles over messaging and strategy as it aims to reclaim the House and Senate.
In terms of House races, 54% of Latino voters said they would back a Democrat in their local district, while 27% would support a Republican and 19% remain undecided. That gap offers Democrats a potential opening, but the high number of undecided voters signals that the party has work to do to solidify support.
The political environment remains rocky for Republicans as well. Beyond Trump’s Latino voter troubles, Americans have expressed anxiety over the economy and distaste for the nearly three-month military campaign against Iran. Trump’s approval ratings have taken a hit in recent polls, and the president faces headwinds on multiple fronts. A recent Cabinet meeting highlighted stalled Iran talks and tightened Ebola screenings, underscoring the administration's challenges in foreign policy and public health.
Democrats, meanwhile, are debating their own message—caught between appealing to the base and winning back moderates. The party’s leadership has yet to settle on a unified platform, and internal divisions remain evident. Some Democrats see the midterms as a chance to capitalize on Trump’s vulnerabilities, but the poll suggests that simply being “not Trump” may not be enough to energize Latino voters.
The UnidosUS poll has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, making it a robust snapshot of Latino voter sentiment. As the midterms approach, both parties will be watching these numbers closely—especially in key battleground states where Latino voters could tip the balance.
