Farming has never been easy, but nearly two years of Republican governance have turned a tough livelihood into a near-impossible struggle. President Trump’s trade wars, compounded by military conflict in Iran, have created an unprecedented agricultural crisis that shows no signs of easing.
Small farm bankruptcies hit a record high in 2025, driven by Trump’s economic policies. Now, the war in Iran has triggered a freight crisis, collapsing global shipping routes and cutting off U.S. farmers from key foreign markets. According to AgroLatam, foreign grain exports have shriveled as ships remain unable to travel.
Trump visited Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, earlier this month to reassure farmers he understands their plight. The event backfired. Facing a room of growers battered by rising input costs and trade restrictions, Trump falsely claimed that fertilizer and energy prices were falling. “Your fertilizer’s down, your energy’s down, your oil, your gas is all coming way down,” he said.
Reality tells a different story. Diesel fuel prices hit nearly $5.20 per gallon on Tuesday—47% higher than a year ago. Analysts predict high fuel costs will persist through the summer even if the Iran conflict ends immediately. Fertilizer prices and shipping lanes may take months to normalize, and some experts warn they may never return to pre-war levels.
Congressional Republicans have done little to help. The House Agriculture Committee has held only one hearing on farmers’ economic challenges this year, focused on Trump’s USMCA trade deal. The Senate Agriculture Committee, led by Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.), has held just two farm-focused hearings, one of which indirectly acknowledged rising fertilizer costs.
Rural voters are noticing. A Reuters-Ipsos survey from June 3-8 shows Trump’s approval among rural voters has fallen 10 points since February 2025, to 50%. Disapproval has surged to 48%, up from 34% last year, as even steadfast MAGA supporters lose faith.
Former Trump aide Marc Short warned in The Washington Post that the president’s policies have “punch[ed] farmers in the mouth,” costing over $34 billion in farm losses last year. Short noted that more than 90% of farmers report their finances have worsened or stayed the same since 2025. “Republicans who continue to ignore this reality do so at their peril,” he wrote.
The GOP has long counted farmers as a safe bloc, but electoral coalitions can shift when voters feel economic pain. Democrats saw this in 2024 when inflation eroded loyalty among their base. Now, with Trump’s trade wars and the Iran conflict straining rural livelihoods, Republicans risk a similar reckoning. As Short put it, “Political coalitions are not set in stone; they must be won in every cycle.”
Farmers need effective policy, not rallies where the president tells them to doubt their own balance sheets. Trump is sowing the wind by denying the red ink they see every day. If the GOP continues to treat rural Americans with such disregard, they will reap the political whirlwind in November.
