In his latest column, veteran political commentator Bill Press draws on Barbara Tuchman's classic work The March of Folly to warn against repeating history's mistakes—this time in Cuba. Press argues that the 66-year U.S. embargo has been a disaster for both countries and that the real path to regime change lies not in military force but in ending the embargo and letting capitalism flourish.
Press highlights Tuchman's cautionary tales—from the Trojan War to Vietnam—as evidence that governments often pursue policies that backfire spectacularly. He suggests that President Trump, after threatening military action against Iran and Venezuela, should read Tuchman before launching yet another regime-change effort. "Any war against Cuba would be another pure folly," Press writes.
The embargo, imposed by President Eisenhower in 1960 and maintained by every subsequent administration, has crippled Cuba's economy while leaving its communist leadership entrenched. "For the people of Cuba, it's meant 66 years of extreme poverty, lack of jobs, scarcity of public transportation, poor education and health care," Press notes. Meanwhile, Americans have missed out on what was once the Caribbean's top tourist destination—a place where U.S. businesses could build hotels, resorts, and create thousands of jobs.
Press points to the outsized influence of Miami's Cuban exile community, particularly through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in shaping U.S. policy. He traces a history of failed efforts to topple Castro, from the Bay of Pigs to assassination plots involving exploding cigars. Today, with Rubio's backing, Trump has blocked oil shipments to Cuba, indicted former President Raul Castro for murder, and hinted at sending in troops. "It looks like I'll be the one that does it," Trump said recently.
But Press warns that military intervention would be a strategic blunder. Unlike Iran, Cuba poses no nuclear threat to the U.S. Instead, he argues, ending the embargo would allow American capitalism to demonstrate its benefits, leading Cubans to reject the old regime themselves. "Once residents of Cuba see what benefits capitalism and democracy can provide, they'll get rid of the old regime themselves," he writes.
Press's column echoes broader debates about U.S. foreign policy, including the risks of economic pressure on Iran and the ongoing legal battles over Havana dock use. He concludes that any military action in Cuba would be just another chapter in the "March of Folly."
Bill Press is host of "The Bill Press Pod" and author of From the Left: A Life in the Crossfire.
