The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is projecting a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño event, with nearly 70 percent odds it will surpass any on record since 1950. The coming climate pattern is expected to trigger historic flooding in some regions, extreme heat and drought in others, and conditions ripe for severe wildfires and supply-chain disruptions that will threaten lives and livelihoods worldwide.
The sheer scale of this El Niño means disasters could hit broad swaths of geography simultaneously, with overlapping timelines that strain resources. Unlike sudden-onset crises, this is a disaster forecast months in advance—yet the United States' emergency management apparatus remains built for reaction, not anticipation.
Most federal disaster funding operates on a consequence-management model: money flows only after damage is assessed or estimated. That approach fails when forecasts are accurate but not precise, arriving months ahead of impact. As a result, the nation waits for tragedy to strike before committing resources, even though evidence consistently shows preparedness investments yield major savings.
Compounding the problem, the preparedness infrastructure is eroding. The Government Accountability Office reported that about 17 percent of the Federal Emergency Management Agency workforce departed during fiscal 2025—a nearly 55 percent jump in attrition. Leadership losses were even steeper, with 58 senior executives leaving over the following year, taking decades of expertise with them.
Forecasting has quietly improved over recent decades, offering more lead time and reduced uncertainty for hurricanes and seasonal outlooks. Farmers worldwide have used these tools to protect crops and food supplies. But this capability is fragile. The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research has faced budget-elimination proposals, and while Congress has so far rebuffed those attempts, the funding streams remain uncertain.
Globally, the picture is grimmer. The UN World Food Program estimates at least 49 million people could face acute hunger by the end of 2027. With the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and broader cuts to international assistance, humanitarian funding in 2025 fell to its lowest level in a decade—only about $12 billion received, reaching 25 million fewer people than the prior year.
Some proactive steps are already underway. The World Food Program has activated anticipatory action plans in several countries, releasing more than $14 million to assist roughly half a million people. In California, flood-fight containers are being pre-positioned across dozens of counties. The FEMA Review Council's report acknowledges the value of speed, proposing parametric block grants that could eventually enable more pre-disaster funding.
Despite political polarization over emergency management reform and foreign aid, experts say noncontroversial actions can be taken now. First, maintain current funding and staffing levels while broader strategies are debated. Second, extend pre-landfall declaration authority—already used for hurricanes—to slower-onset hazards like El Niño, where seasonal forecasts are just as actionable. Third, close the insurance gap by promoting the National Flood Insurance Program's 30-day waiting period so more people have coverage when disasters hit. Finally, begin recovery planning immediately, addressing debris removal, housing, and economic recovery, with a focus on vulnerable populations.
El Niño will not be the last extreme event. The choice is clear: keep reacting to disasters or start applying the forecasts we already have. For this one, there is still time to act.
