The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting a greater than 90 percent likelihood of a very strong El Niño event, with nearly 70 percent odds it could surpass any on record since 1950. Such an event would trigger historic flooding in some regions, extreme heat and drought in others, and fuel more severe wildfires and supply chain disruptions across the globe.
The sheer scale of this El Niño means disasters could strike vast geographic areas simultaneously, stretching resources thin as governments and aid groups compete for the same assets. Unlike sudden hurricanes, this is a crisis forecast months in advance—yet the U.S. disaster framework remains fundamentally reactive, designed to respond after damage occurs rather than to anticipate it.
Most federal disaster funding operates on a consequence-management model: money flows only after damage assessments are completed. That approach fails when warnings are accurate but lack precision, and when they arrive months ahead of impact. According to experts, this leaves the nation waiting for tragedy before releasing funds, despite clear evidence that preparedness investments save money and lives.
Compounding the problem, the preparedness infrastructure itself is eroding. A recent Government Accountability Office report found that about 17 percent of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) workforce left during fiscal 2025—a nearly 55 percent spike in attrition. Leadership losses were even steeper, with 58 senior executives departing over the following year, taking decades of institutional knowledge with them.
Forecasting capability has quietly improved in recent decades, offering earlier warnings for hurricanes and seasonal outlooks that help farmers protect crops. But this progress is fragile. The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research has faced budget elimination proposals, and while Congress has so far rejected those cuts, the future of forecasting infrastructure remains uncertain.
Globally, the situation is more dire. The United Nations World Food Program estimates at least 49 million people could face acute hunger by the end of 2027. With the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and broader cuts to international assistance, humanitarian funding in 2025 fell to its lowest level in a decade—only about $12 billion received, reaching 25 million fewer people than the previous year.
Some proactive steps are underway. The World Food Program has activated anticipatory action plans in several countries, releasing over $14 million to reach about half a million people. In California, flood-fight containers are being pre-positioned across dozens of counties. And the FEMA Review Council has proposed parametric block grants to speed up post-disaster funding, a model that could eventually support anticipatory financing.
Despite political polarization over emergency management and foreign aid, experts argue there are nonpartisan actions to take now. First, stop the bleeding: maintain current funding levels and support agency staff while broader reforms are debated. Second, attach forecast triggers to federal disaster declarations, extending pre-landfall declarations used for hurricanes to slower-onset hazards like El Niño.
Third, close the insurance gap. The National Flood Insurance Program typically requires policies to be in place 30 days before an event triggers a claim, so aggressive outreach now could ensure coverage when needed. Finally, begin recovery planning immediately—debris removal, housing, economic recovery, and support for the most vulnerable—since recovery takes years.
As Jeff Schlegelmilch, associate professor at Columbia Climate School and author of Rethinking Readiness, notes, we can either marvel at forecasts and document lessons, or start applying them today. With this El Niño, the time to act is now. For more on the forecast, see NOAA's fall outlook and the diverging seasonal predictions.
