With the autumnal equinox just weeks away, forecasters are already issuing long-range predictions for September through November. But those outlooks—from NOAA and the two major almanacs—paint sharply different pictures of what Americans can expect this fall.
Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal outlook, indicating that most of the country is likely to see above-normal temperatures. The Pacific Northwest stands out as the region most likely to experience a warmer-than-average fall, while a handful of states in the central U.S. have equal chances of a warm, cool, or average season.
On the precipitation front, NOAA's forecast is less definitive. The Southwest and Southeast are more likely to see above-average rainfall, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are leaning drier. For much of the rest of the country, the odds are essentially a toss-up.
The almanacs, however, offer starkly different narratives. The Old Farmer's Almanac, released last month, predicts a “warmer than average” fall overall, with a “cool, wet” stretch in the Pacific Northwest and northern New England. It also calls for warm and dry conditions across the Plains, Rockies, and parts of the central Gulf region, while the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and East Coast could see a cool and dry season.
In contrast, the Farmers' Almanac has dubbed this fall a “dramatic drench,” forecasting wetter conditions across much of the country. The Pacific Northwest is the only region expected to stay dry, while the northern two-thirds of the nation could turn cold. The central U.S. and New England may see wet weather, the Midwest could be rainy, and the Southeast is predicted to be stormy.
Both publications claim an 80% accuracy rate for their long-range forecasts, relying on proprietary formulas. Yet independent research suggests the Farmers' Almanac has historically been accurate only about half the time. Meteorologist Rich Segal, who recently retired from Nexstar's KXAN, cautioned that such forecasts are “more like a crapshoot,” noting that even short-range predictions can be blown within the first 24 hours.
NOAA's outlook also reflects the early influence of El Niño, which forecasters believe could reach its strongest level this year. That pattern typically brings warm, dry conditions to the Pacific Northwest and wetter weather to the South, while also suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and increasing high-tide flooding on the West Coast.
Hawaii, not shown on the main maps, is likely to see above-normal temperatures this fall before shifting to a cooler winter in early 2027. Below-average precipitation is increasingly likely across the islands starting in October.
Jon Gottschalck, Operational Prediction Branch Chief at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, previously told Nexstar that the agency's outlooks are subject to change and that releasing them earlier would reduce their reliability.
For those tracking the political and policy implications of weather patterns, NOAA's latest fall forecast underscores the challenges of long-range planning. And as the almanacs release their winter predictions, meteorologists continue to urge caution about their accuracy.
