The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted its ratings in four gubernatorial contests toward Democrats, all in states with Republican governors, signaling potential gains for the party in November's midterms.
The most dramatic change came in Alaska, where the race moved from a “tossup” to “lean Democrat.” Former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) is polling well ahead of three Republican contenders, according to Cook's analysis. The GOP field is divided, with conservative activist Bernadette Wilson leading among Republicans but facing a crowded primary that could split the vote under the state's ranked-choice system.
“The concern for Republicans is that, amid a divided GOP field, Republican voters will only choose one of their candidates on their ranked-choice ballots rather than ranking multiple options, allowing Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate a majority,” wrote Cook editor Jessica Taylor.
In Nebraska, Cook shifted the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” after polls showed incumbent Gov. Jim Pillen (R) leading former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D) by just over five points, according to Decision Desk HQ. The narrow margin in a traditionally red state has caught attention, though Republicans remain favored.
Vermont's contest also moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as recent surveys show Gov. Phil Scott (R) leading Democrat Amanda Janoo by only three points, a stark contrast to his 2024 reelection victory by more than 50 points. Taylor noted that while Cook remains skeptical the race is truly competitive, the polling dip is “worth paying attention to.”
Oklahoma's open governor's race shifted from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” after GOP nominee Mike Mazzei, a former budget secretary, won an August runoff with President Donald Trump's endorsement. He faces state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson (D). Taylor pointed to more than $2 million in recent ads from the Republican Governor's Association backing Mazzei, as well as private Democratic polling that showed a competitive race.
The shifts come less than a month before Election Day and follow a trend of Democrats gaining ground in national polling. While Republicans still hold structural advantages in these states, the ratings changes reflect an environment where Democratic candidates are outperforming expectations in GOP-leaning territory.
Analysts caution that these are ratings adjustments, not predictions, and that Republican incumbents and nominees remain favored. However, the moves underscore how a divided GOP base and shifting voter sentiment could reshape the gubernatorial map, even in states that have voted solidly Republican in recent cycles.
