A fresh survey from NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows Democrats with a 7-point edge over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, reinforcing the favorable political climate for the party with just three weeks until Election Day.
The exclusive poll, conducted by AI research platform TrueDot.ai and released Tuesday, puts Democratic support at 49 percent versus 42 percent for the GOP, with 8 percent of likely voters still undecided. NewsNation is owned by Nexstar, which also owns The Hill.
When asked which party has done more to earn their vote, 46 percent of respondents chose the Democratic Party, while 40 percent picked the GOP. About 7 percent said independents, and 8 percent said none of the above.
The full results are slated for discussion during a Decision Desk 2026 Have Your Say town hall hosted by Chris Cuomo on NewsNation Tuesday night. Guests include former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, commentator Stephen A. Smith, and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon.
Recent polling has consistently shown Democrats holding a significant advantage on the congressional ballot, and forecasters now broadly expect the party to reclaim the House in November. DDHQ's model gives Democrats a 76 percent probability of flipping the chamber, with Republicans at 24 percent.
“The big question is if the lead grows more,” said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at DDHQ. “You’re basically out of time for much to change. At this point, it is probably more just about engaging the voters in your party as best you can, and making some final cases to voters who might normally or might have in the past voted for your party, if you’re Republicans in particular, and then trying to make the case for why they should show up again.”
The poll also found President Trump’s favorability underwater, with 38 percent viewing him favorably and 60 percent unfavorably. Voters identified inflation (28 percent), jobs and the economy (20 percent), and immigration and the border (12 percent) as the most pressing national issues.
Skelley expressed skepticism that Trump’s recent deal to import 300,000 tons of Russian diesel would shift voter sentiment before November, noting the bipartisan backlash the move has generated. “Americans don’t necessarily have a very popular opinion of Russia, and so some may look askance at this move as well,” he said.
While the House looks increasingly likely to flip, the Senate remains a closer contest. Democrats must net four seats to take control, and they are facing tough races in Republican-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. DDHQ currently gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of winning the Senate, compared to 44 percent for Republicans.
The NewsNation-DDHQ poll surveyed 974 likely 2026 national voters between October 5 and October 9, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. As the campaign enters its final stretch, both parties are focusing on turnout and late-deciding voters in key battlegrounds. Recent forecast shifts toward Democrats have added to GOP concerns, while Senate control remains tight in several pivotal states.
