South Dakota's Republican primary for governor is heading to a runoff after none of the four candidates secured the required 35 percent of the vote on Tuesday. Business owner Toby Doeden led the field with 30.6 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ, while incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden narrowly claimed the second runoff spot with just over 25 percent, edging out Representative Dusty Johnson and state House Speaker Jon Hansen.
Under state law, a candidate must receive at least 35 percent of the vote in a primary with three or more contenders to win the nomination outright. Since no one hit that mark, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff election scheduled for July 28.
Doeden, who has styled himself as the "fiercest ally to President Trump in the nation," now faces Rhoden, who ascended to the governorship after former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem left office to join the Trump administration. The runoff sets up a high-stakes contest between a political outsider and an incumbent who has been in office for less than two years.
If Doeden maintains the momentum from Tuesday night, Rhoden could become the first sitting governor to lose a primary since former Kansas Governor Jeff Colyer (R) fell in 2018. The race has drawn national attention as a test of Trump's influence within the GOP and the staying power of establishment figures in deeply red states.
Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination went uncontested to former state Senator Dan Ahlers, who will face the runoff winner in November. Republicans have dominated statewide races in South Dakota for years, making the GOP nominee the heavy favorite in the general election.
The runoff is reminiscent of other recent high-profile contests, such as the Los Angeles mayoral race where Karen Bass secured a runoff spot. In South Dakota, the stakes are particularly high for Rhoden, who must defend his record against a challenger who has positioned himself as a more aggressive Trump loyalist.
Doeden's campaign has focused on his business background and promises to cut regulations and taxes, while Rhoden has emphasized his experience and steady leadership. The runoff will likely intensify as both candidates vie for the support of the state's conservative base.
Political analysts note that the outcome could signal broader trends in the GOP, especially regarding the party's direction under Trump's influence. For now, all eyes are on July 28, when South Dakota Republicans will decide who will carry their banner into the fall.
