Democrats see a growing opportunity to flip a competitive New Jersey House seat as Republican Representative Thomas Kean Jr. remains absent from Washington for nearly three months, dealing with an undisclosed health issue. Kean, who secured the GOP nomination for a third term on Tuesday, has not voted in Congress since March 5, raising questions about his ability to represent the west-central district.
"I wouldn't say it's a slam dunk for Democrats, but I think the incumbent has a significant amount of work to do to even bring this to 50-50," said New Jersey Democratic strategist Laura Matos, who has hosted fundraisers for Kean's Democratic challenger, Rebecca Bennett.
Kean, scion of a political dynasty that includes his father, former Governor Thomas Kean, and other family members who held state office, served as state Senate GOP leader for nearly 15 years before winning the House seat in 2022. He comfortably won reelection in 2024 by more than five points, even as President Donald Trump narrowly carried the district. But the political landscape has shifted, with Trump's approval ratings declining and Kean's prolonged absence becoming a campaign issue.
Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot and moderate Democrat, easily won her primary on Tuesday and is seen as the party's strongest candidate. "First and foremost, we want to make sure folks have their health, but I do think it's going to be a big issue, because until the day he is back in Washington, D.C., that's time that he's not doing his job, and that's unanswered for," Matos said. "The people of that district deserve to know that."
Kean's campaign and office have provided only intermittent updates. In a statement on Tuesday, he said he plans to transition from virtual to in-person work in the coming weeks and will be "completely transparent" about his condition. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said he knows the nature of Kean's health issue, described it as "not a scandalous thing at all," but declined to elaborate.
Democrats also point to outside interference in the primary as a sign of GOP nervousness. A mysterious super PAC spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads attacking Bennett as not sufficiently progressive, a move one Democratic strategist said showed the GOP didn't want to face her in the general election. New Jersey Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck argued those attacks could backfire. "Being moderate was consistent with that district, and combine that with her Navy helicopter experience, she's got a compelling profile," he said.
But Republicans caution that the district has become more favorable to them, with registered Republicans now outnumbering Democrats. GOP strategist Jeanette Hoffman noted that Bennett could be linked to more liberal Democrats in the state, such as Representative Analilia Mejia and Adam Hamawy, the Democratic nominee in the neighboring 12th District. Hoffman also predicted sympathy for Kean. "Most people can understand or have had loved ones that have had a similar situation in their life," she said. "He has a history of doing a great job for his constituents."
The race has drawn national attention as part of a broader Democratic push to flip swing districts. For more on the dynamics affecting the party's prospects, see our coverage of Democrats' fundraising challenges and how they are navigating internal and external pressures. The outcome in New Jersey's 7th District could hinge on whether Kean's absence becomes a defining issue or fades as he returns to Washington.
