Democrats are on track to reclaim the Senate majority in the Nov. 3 elections, according to leading forecasters, as Republican donors grow increasingly alarmed that President Trump's broken promises will drag down the party's candidates across the map.
The current Senate split is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats. Of the 35 seats up this cycle, Republicans are defending 22, giving Democrats a favorable battlefield. Forecasts now show Democrats with a 60 percent chance of winning control, according to fredcornell.com, and 72 percent on RacetotheWH.com.
The GOP's internal confidence is crumbling. At a retreat last week on Georgia's Sea Island, National Republican Senatorial Committee pollster Erik Iverson tried to assure top donors that all incumbent Republicans would hold their seats. But Axios reported that donors nearly laughed him out of the room, with one calling the assessment "delusional." The episode underscores a broader recognition among Republican financiers that the party is in deep trouble.
To take the majority, Democrats must hold their own seats and net four pickups. They appear strong on both fronts. Incumbents like Chris Coons of Delaware, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Jack Reed of Rhode Island, and Ed Markey of Massachusetts are virtually assured reelection. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff was once seen as the most vulnerable Democrat, but his campaign has been so robust that he is already being discussed as a 2028 presidential contender.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has unified his party after a bitter primary and leads Republican Mike Rogers in the race for the seat left open by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas holds an 8-point lead over Republican John Sununu for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Democrats are also turning the tide in traditionally red states. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is nearly certain to become the state's next senator. Four other Republican-held seats are firmly in play: Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted in most polls; Alaska, where former Rep. Mary Peltola is ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan; Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is deadlocked with Democrat Troy Jackson in the fight of her career; and Texas, where Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 5 points. Paxton, Trump's handpicked candidate, is widely seen as flawed.
Two additional red-state surprises have emerged. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist endorsed by former President Obama, holds a small lead over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has Trump's backing. Iowa hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 2008. In Kansas, pastor Adam Hamilton, founder of the nation's largest United Methodist Church, is running ahead of GOP Sen. Roger Marshall — a stunning development in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
Then came the weekend shocker: Darline Graham, whom Trump handpicked to fill the seat of her late brother Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, is in trouble not only with Democrats but also with Republicans furious that Trump endorsed her over longtime conservative Rep. Ralph Norman of the Freedom Caucus. A Trafalgar Group poll shows Graham leading Democratic challenger Annie Andrews by just 1 point in a state Trump won by 17.9 points in 2024.
That makes eight vulnerable Republicans, of whom Democrats need to flip four. It's not a certainty, but it's clearly possible — especially as Republican incumbents are forced to defend a president who broke his promises to cut prices, lower mortgage rates, end the war in Ukraine, and avoid new wars, and who now spends much of his time talking about a ballroom. If Democrats recapture the Senate, Trump will have no one to blame but himself.
