The nonpartisan Cook Political Report updated its gubernatorial race ratings on Friday, tilting the playing field in five states—four of them now favoring Democrats as the party builds momentum ahead of the midterm elections.
Jessica Taylor, the report’s Senate and governors’ editor, noted that Democrats are becoming “uniquely competitive” in several red-leaning states, thanks to what she called a “favorable national climate” and strong Democratic recruits. The biggest shifts came in Arizona and Ohio, where the ratings moved significantly toward the left.
Arizona Moves to Lean Democrat
In Arizona, the governor’s race shifted from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” reflecting Governor Katie Hobbs’s strong fundraising advantage over likely Republican nominee Representative Andy Biggs. Hobbs has already spent over $6 million on ads and held more than six times Biggs’s cash on hand as of April. Cook described Hobbs as “the most endangered Democratic incumbent,” but noted that’s largely because few incumbents are running in competitive states. Biggs, backed by former President Trump and expected to win the GOP primary against Representative David Schweikert, was labeled a “potentially polarizing” candidate whose hard-line conservative and election-denial stances may alienate moderate voters. Trump carried Arizona in both 2024 and 2016, but the state’s shifting demographics could make it a battleground again.
Ohio Becomes a Toss Up
Ohio’s race moved from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” with Cook citing polls showing former state health director Amy Acton either narrowly leading or tied with biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, despite Ramaswamy’s multimillion-dollar ad campaign attacking Acton’s COVID-19 regulations. Some Ohio Republicans privately told Cook they “are not optimistic about Ramaswamy” and expect a “very tight race.” One GOP source bluntly added: “This was the wrong guy to roll the dice with in this political environment.”
Maine and New Mexico Solidify for Democrats
Two Democratic-held seats moved off the competitive map entirely. Maine shifted from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” as Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree holds a commanding polling lead over Republican Bobby Charles. New Mexico also moved from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” with former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland dominating fundraising against Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull. These shifts suggest Democrats are consolidating support in states where they already had an edge, potentially freeing resources for more competitive races. The Maine Democrats’ Senate race has also seen a flood of activity after a scandal withdrawal, further energizing the party.
Oregon Bucks the Trend
The only rating change benefiting Republicans came in Oregon, where the race moved from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat.” Cook pointed to Governor Tina Kotek’s middling approval ratings and a competitive rematch against Republican Christine Drazan, who lost to Kotek by just 3.4 percentage points in 2022. This shift highlights that even in deep-blue states, incumbents can face headwinds if their performance lags.
Overall, the Cook report underscores a political environment that continues to favor Democrats in key gubernatorial contests, with strong fundraising and candidate quality giving them an edge. The ACLU’s $25 million investment in state races could further amplify Democratic efforts. As November approaches, the battle for governorships in states like Arizona and Ohio will be critical for both parties’ national strategies.
