The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Friday updated its House ratings, moving a dozen additional races in favor of Democrats as the midterm campaign enters its final days. The new projections now show more than 218 seats leaning Democratic or better, suggesting the party is on track to secure a majority of between 227 and 240 seats.
This is the latest in a series of shifts that have favored Democrats over the past several weeks, reflecting a broader trend that has Republicans scrambling to defend previously safe turf. The changes include several notable moves: Colorado's 5th Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Jeff Crank, has been downgraded from "lean Republican" to "toss up." Similarly, Pennsylvania's 1st District, represented by GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and the open seat in South Carolina's 1st District have also been reclassified as toss-ups.
Fitzpatrick's district is one of the few that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, making it a prime target for Democrats. In her analysis, Cook House editor Erin Covey noted that the competitive Senate race in South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging Republican Sen. Darline Graham, could boost Democratic turnout in the district, even though it went for Trump by double digits two years ago.
"Currently, GOP outside groups are outspending Democrats by more than $3 million," Covey said. "But some Republicans are still concerned it won't be enough, particularly if Democratic Senate nominee Annie Andrews — a Charleston resident — carries this district by at least a couple of points."
Pennsylvania's 8th District, represented by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, shifted from "toss up" to "lean Democrat." Covey wrote that recent polling shows Bresnahan trailing his Democratic opponent, and that attacks over his stock trades appear to be resonating with voters. Ohio's 9th District, held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, also moved in the same direction. Despite Republicans redrawing her district twice in their favor, Kaptur has consistently fended off challengers, and Cook now projects she will prevail again.
In addition, Cook has moved several safer Republican seats back onto the battlefield. Florida's 7th and 9th Congressional Districts and Indiana's 5th District have all been downgraded from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." Covey pointed to Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz's struggles to consolidate her base after serious primary challenges, noting, "Her own unpopularity, coupled with Trump's sagging approval rating, puts this seat in contention."
Further downgrades include North Carolina's 5th and 9th Districts, New Jersey's 2nd, and Washington's 5th, all moving from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican." These districts all feature GOP incumbents seeking reelection. Covey attributed some of this movement to the wide margin in North Carolina's Senate race, where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leads former RNC chair Michael Whatley, which may depress Republican turnout. "Republicans, meanwhile, are deeply concerned about low turnout in North Carolina this cycle now that national GOP groups have stopped contesting the Senate race," she added.
The shifts come as Republicans have pulled spending from some key House contests, a sign that their internal polling may be deteriorating. With Democrats needing to flip just three seats to win the chamber, the GOP's margin for error is razor-thin. Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, is similarly bullish on Democratic chances, giving them an 80 percent probability of taking the majority.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, these ratings changes underscore the mounting pressure on Republicans to defend their hold on the House. For more on the broader electoral landscape, check out our coverage of recent polling in Kansas and Maine, and the final pre-election push by Trump and Vance across the South.
