A fresh Emerson College/PIX11 survey released Thursday shows Democratic challenger Cait Conley with a narrow two-point advantage over incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R) in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a key battleground in the fight for control of the House.
Conley drew support from 48 percent of likely voters, while Lawler garnered 46 percent, with the remainder undecided less than five weeks before Election Day. The Democrat’s lead falls inside the poll’s roughly 4.9 percent margin of error, meaning the contest remains statistically tied.
The survey also reveals a slight erosion in Lawler’s favorability among his constituents since October 2024. Notably, 10 percent of respondents said they had never heard of the congressman, suggesting that despite his incumbency, he remains unknown to a slice of the electorate.
Lawler, first elected in 2022 to represent the lower Hudson Valley district, has centered his campaign on his legislative record, including his vote for President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Conley, a retired Army combat veteran, has focused on reducing healthcare costs, prohibiting stock trading by members of Congress, and capping energy rate hikes.
The two candidates clashed earlier this week in a News12 debate on Long Island, sparring over federal immigration enforcement, data centers, and the Trump administration’s tariff disputes with trading partners such as Canada. In a particularly sharp exchange on U.S. aid to Israel, Lawler defended the funding as vital to American interests and troops in the region, and pushed back against accusations that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, stating flatly, “They have not committed a genocide.”
The Emerson poll also gauged voter sentiment on broader issues. A majority—52 percent—opposed U.S. military operations against Iran, with opposition strongest among Democrats (83 percent), followed by independents (44 percent) and Republicans (15 percent).
When asked to name the most pressing issue facing New York, 31 percent of respondents cited economic conditions, while 23 percent chose “threats to democracy.” Immigration issues and housing affordability rounded out the top concerns at 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
The survey was conducted from September 27 to 29 among 400 likely voters and carries a margin of error of approximately 4.9 percentage points. PIX11 is owned by Nexstar, which also owns The Hill.
With the race this close, both parties are expected to pour resources into the district in the final stretch. The outcome could help determine whether Republicans hold their slim House majority or Democrats reclaim the chamber. For more on the candidates’ recent debate, see our coverage of their fiery exchange over Israel and tariffs. And as national trends continue to shift, keep an eye on our report about the building Democratic wave in 2026.
