Former national security adviser John Bolton argued Monday that Iran is deliberately using oil market swings as a bargaining chip in ceasefire negotiations with the United States, betting that domestic political pressure will force President Trump to make concessions.
"I think the regime in Iran believes it can outlast Trump, that it has more patience than he does because he's so desperate to get the price of oil down," Bolton said during an appearance on NewsNation's "The Hill." He added that Tehran has intentionally linked the Lebanon front to the talks, giving it another point of leverage. "That's just one more factor they can push Trump on because they think he's in a mood to give in."
The assessment comes as negotiations over a tentative truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appear to have collapsed. U.S. officials had insisted progress was being made, but Tehran announced Monday it was suspending discussions, citing ongoing Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on social platform X. "Its violation on one front is a violation on all fronts. The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation."
According to the state-linked Tasnim News Agency, Iran said it would no longer communicate with the U.S. through intermediaries and would reimpose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint that has been a flashpoint throughout the conflict. Iranian naval attacks and shipping restrictions have choked traffic through the strait, causing global supply disruptions and spiking energy prices.
The memorandum of understanding reached last week would have fully reopened the strait in exchange for the U.S. gradually lifting its naval blockade. Such a deal would have provided a political boost for Trump, who faces voter backlash over inflation and rising gas prices. His approval ratings have suffered significantly since the conflict began, with erosion even among Republican voters on economic issues.
President Trump told NBC News on Monday he was unaware Iran had halted talks, adding that was "OK" with him. Later, on Truth Social, he claimed discussions had not stopped. "Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran," he wrote.
The standoff underscores the administration's broader challenges in the region. Trump has previously berated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Lebanon offensive, calling him "crazy" in private. Meanwhile, domestic political pressures continue to mount, with Trump seeking to dismiss legal cases in New York and facing GOP infighting over budget reconciliation.
