A fresh poll from Emerson College and Inside California Politics shows former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra with a slight edge in the sprawling contest to replace Governor Gavin Newsom. The survey, released Wednesday, puts Becerra at 19 percent among likely voters, just ahead of Republican strategist Steve Hilton and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who each drew 17 percent support.
The field remains fluid after the abrupt exit of Congressman Eric Swalwell, who had been considered a frontrunner. Swalwell resigned his House seat and suspended his gubernatorial bid last month following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied. His departure reshuffled the dynamics in a race already defined by a crowded and ideologically diverse slate.
According to the poll, only two other candidates cracked double digits: Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Democratic Representative Katie Porter, both at 10 percent. The survey sampled 1,000 California voters from May 9-10 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The open primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party, sets up a potentially unpredictable general election. With the primary scheduled for June 2, candidates are jockeying for position in a contest that has drawn national attention as a bellwether for Democratic and Republican strategies in a deep-blue state.
Becerra came under fire during a recent gubernatorial debate over his stance on single-payer health care, a litmus test for progressive Democrats. Tom Steyer pointed to the California Medical Association’s endorsement of Becerra, noting the group’s opposition to single-payer proposals. When pressed by moderator Elex Michaelson of CNN, Becerra defended the concept. “We should try to get to a ‘Medicare for All’ program, and while we are continuing to work in that direction, we should make sure we are expanding coverage because the most important thing we have to do is give people peace of mind that they can afford their healthcare,” he said.
The health care debate underscores a key fault line among Democrats. Single-payer advocates argue for replacing private insurance with a federally run system, while moderates and some labor groups worry about disruption. Becerra’s background as HHS secretary under President Biden gives him a platform on health policy, but it also makes him a target for rivals seeking to paint him as insufficiently progressive.
Meanwhile, the Republican side remains fragmented. Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and advisor to British Prime Minister David Cameron, has sought to position himself as a reform-minded conservative. Sheriff Chad Bianco, known for his tough-on-crime rhetoric, appeals to the party’s base. Neither has yet consolidated GOP support, leaving room for a late surge.
The race’s national implications are notable. California’s governor controls a massive budget and significant policy levers on climate, immigration, and technology regulation. The outcome could also shape the 2026 midterm landscape, especially if a Republican manages to win the general election in a state where Democrats hold a commanding registration advantage.
For now, Becerra’s lead is tenuous, and the open primary could produce surprises. Voters will have their say in just over three weeks.
