If I were handicapping the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, I wouldn't sleep on Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A recent poll shows the New York progressive leading the pack on the left. But her supporters shouldn't book hotel rooms for the inauguration just yet.
For months, Ocasio-Cortez has barnstormed the country with Sen. Bernie Sanders on his “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, which aims to have “real discussions across America on how we move forward to take on the oligarchs and corporate interests who have so much power and influence in this country.” The targets are presumably Trump and the GOP. But as Sanders knows from painful experience, the first oligarchs to beat are inside the Democratic Party.
The party's leadership has a well-documented history of tilting the scales. In 2016, the DNC worked behind the scenes to crown Hillary Clinton, at the direct expense of Sanders's campaign. The scandal forced DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to resign amid outrage from millions of Sanders supporters. In 2020, the same entrenched leadership sidelined Sanders again. And in 2024, they did it to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., clearing the path for Biden and then Harris.
Some Democrats worry the same machine will try to knock Ocasio-Cortez out if she runs. But that scenario may be wishful thinking for the establishment. A recent ABC News headline captured the mood: “Democratic socialists think fatigue with mainstream politics could open paths to victories in the midterms.” The party's left wing is organizing, and AOC is its most prominent standard-bearer.
Republicans, for their part, see Ocasio-Cortez as a gift. Most conservatives and people of faith I talk to believe she's carrying the socialist banner. They assume that's a huge political advantage for the GOP. But is it? A Fox News poll earlier this year found that 38 percent of voters think moving toward socialism and away from capitalism would be good for the U.S. Nearly half said capitalism is working “not very well” or “not at all well.” As history shows, the promise of free stuff can be a powerful vote-getter.
Ocasio-Cortez still has room to grow. Some of her recent interviews suggest she's not quite ready for prime time. But she's a quick study. And like Trump in 2016, she has that populist “It Factor” that makes voters feel she's one of them.
If she runs in 2028, the Democratic leadership won't be able to roll her the way they did Sanders. The socialist movement is stronger now, and her base is more organized. If she survives that baptism by fire, she could become a very formidable nominee. The GOP would be wise not to underestimate her.
Meanwhile, similar dynamics are playing out in other races. In Maine, the governor's race is set between Pingree and Charles after the primaries. And in D.C., socialist Janeese Lewis George holds a commanding lead in the mayoral primary, signaling that the left's momentum extends beyond presidential politics.
