President Trump is making his third trip to Texas in a month, holding a rally in San Antonio on Wednesday night as Republicans scramble to shore up support in a midterm landscape that has grown increasingly competitive.
The visit follows stops in Dallas for the GOP midterm convention and a tour of a truck facility in Denton last week. But this time, the political stakes are higher: recent polls show Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton trailing his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, in the race to replace outgoing Sen. John Cornyn (R). Once considered a safe Republican seat, forecasters now list it as a toss-up, a worrying sign for the party as it fights to hold Congress.
Trump is expected to be joined at the rally by Paxton and Carlos De La Cruz, the Republican House candidate in the redrawn 35th Congressional District. De La Cruz is locked in a competitive race of his own; he is the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R), who is seeking reelection in the state's 15th District.
The event is part of a broader swing through red states as the president tries to boost GOP turnout and counter what some analysts see as a potential drag on the party. Trump's remarks are scheduled for 7 p.m. EDT.
Midterm Warning Signs
Texas has long been a Republican stronghold, but shifting demographics and a series of close races have put the state on the map for Democrats. The Senate contest between Paxton and Talarico has drawn national attention, with even a minor illness becoming a campaign flashpoint. Paxton, a controversial figure in state politics, faces an uphill battle against Talarico, a progressive Democrat who has energized young and minority voters.
For Republicans, the rally is both a show of force and a damage-control measure. Trump remains the party's most potent draw, but his presence also carries risks in suburban districts where his style has alienated moderate voters. Still, in San Antonio, the crowd was expected to be friendly, with the president delivering a familiar mix of grievances and partisan attacks.
De La Cruz's Bid
Carlos De La Cruz's campaign in the 35th District is emblematic of the GOP's hopes in Texas. The district was redrawn after the 2020 census, creating a more competitive seat that could swing either way. De La Cruz has tried to tie himself to Trump's agenda while also appealing to local issues, but he faces a well-funded Democratic opponent in a district that leans slightly Democratic on paper.
His sister, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, is running for a third term in the 15th District, and her presence on the campaign trail has helped boost her brother's name recognition. The family's political rise reflects the GOP's efforts to woo Hispanic voters in South Texas, a demographic that has shown signs of shifting rightward in recent elections.
Trump's Red-State Strategy
The president's recent schedule has focused heavily on Republican-leaning states, including Tennessee, where he held a rally earlier this month as part of a series of stops in Nebraska and Oklahoma. The strategy is to energize the base and drive turnout, but it also highlights the party's defensive posture in races that were once considered safe.
Democrats, meanwhile, are watching the Texas races closely. A win in the Senate race would be a major upset and could shift the balance of power in Washington. National Democratic groups have poured money into the state, and party voters are increasingly optimistic about their chances, citing Trump as a motivating factor.
As the rally got underway, the mood among attendees was one of defiance. "We're not going to let the Democrats take Texas," said one supporter, echoing a common refrain. But whether that enthusiasm translates into votes remains to be seen.
The midterms are less than two months away, and both parties are treating Texas as a battleground. Trump's presence may help rally the faithful, but it also gives Democrats a target to mobilize against. For now, the outcome in Texas—and the rest of the country—hangs in the balance.
