Early voting data from the Texas Secretary of State's office reveals a significant surge in turnout for the Republican Senate runoff, with 829,119 mail-in and in-person ballots cast during the early voting period. This marks a 103% increase from the 2020 runoff, a 77% jump from 2022, and a 230% rise from 2024—making it the highest early turnout for a May runoff this decade.
However, the numbers still reflect a 61% drop compared to the March primary, which drew 1,342,995 early Republican voters. The Democratic primary in March saw even higher participation, with 1,493,355 early ballots cast. The runoff's heightened interest stems from the bitter contest between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton for the GOP Senate nomination.
Cornyn narrowly edged out Paxton in the March primary by fewer than 20,000 votes, but neither secured a majority, forcing the runoff. The race took a dramatic turn last week when former President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, having stayed neutral until then. On Sunday, Trump escalated his support, attacking Cornyn as disloyal and criticizing his efforts on the Save America Act.
“Ken’s opponent was VERY disloyal to me, as President, and didn’t fight hard enough for the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT,” Trump posted on social media. The endorsement has reshaped the dynamics, with Paxton rallying supporters by questioning Cornyn’s record over 42 years in public office.
At a campaign event in San Antonio, Paxton asked the crowd, “Can you name one good accomplishment of John Cornyn in those 42 years?” The audience responded with a resounding “No.” Cornyn, however, expressed confidence despite the setback, telling Nexstar he believes he remains the party’s best chance to hold the seat in November.
“Were we to nominate somebody with the baggage that he brings into a general election, I think all that would be at risk,” Cornyn said, referring to Paxton’s legal troubles. The winner of Tuesday’s runoff will face Democratic State Representative James Talarico in the general election. Talarico, who defeated Representative Jasmine Crockett in the March primary, has already pivoted to attack the GOP field, releasing a statement that “We already know who we’re running against: the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system.”
Texas voters who did not participate in the March primary can still cast ballots in Tuesday’s runoff, but those who voted in March are restricted to their original party’s primary. The race has drawn national attention, with pundits watching to see if Trump’s endorsement can tip the scales. For deeper analysis, see our coverage on Trump's all-in support for Paxton and the uphill battle Cornyn now faces.
