For generations, the United States has been defined by growth—a rising population, an expanding economy, and unchallenged global dominance. That trajectory is now in jeopardy. Demographic trends, coupled with aggressive immigration restrictions, are pushing the country toward an unprecedented milestone: a shrinking population.
In 2025, net migration to the U.S. fell to just 1.3 million, excluding births to native-born citizens. The Trump administration has touted the removal of nearly 3 million undocumented residents since the start of his second term. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office projects that natural population growth—births minus deaths—will peak as early as 2030. Without sustained immigration, the U.S. population will begin to contract.
This outcome runs counter to United Nations projections, which had anticipated that the U.S. population would not peak before 2100. Yet recent policy shifts and fertility data suggest the peak will arrive within the next two decades. The 2025 growth rate of just 0.5 percent, excluding the pandemic years, is the slowest since the Kennedy administration.
President Trump has framed his immigration crackdown as a success, but the long-term economic and strategic costs are becoming clear. A country's global influence is tied to its economic weight. Fewer people—especially fewer young immigrants who drive innovation and consumption—means less economic activity. To maintain growth, the U.S. would need offsetting gains in technology or capital investment. But as simulations using the International Futures model show, even dramatic productivity boosts from artificial intelligence cannot fully compensate for a smaller labor force.
Collin Meisel, director of analysis at the University of Denver's Pardee Institute, ran four scenarios comparing pre-Trump immigration trends with cuts of one-third, one-half, and two-thirds. Even the most severe cut merely returns immigrant shares to early-2000s levels, but the impact is stark. In the one-third reduction scenario, U.S. population peaks by 2030. Economic growth would be 0.1 to 0.25 percentage points lower annually, compounding to a trillion-dollar smaller economy by 2040.
The geopolitical implications are equally troubling. China, which already maintains low immigration, would benefit from the same AI productivity gains as the U.S., but with a larger, younger workforce. Meisel's model indicates that under current immigration policies, China could overtake the United States as the world's leading power by mid-century.
The administration's immigration enforcement has led to overcrowding in detention facilities and a purge of immigration judges, as reported by our investigation into the detention crisis. Meanwhile, a federal judge has blocked the halt on immigration applications, citing indefinite limbo for applicants. These policies, combined with a Supreme Court case on Temporary Protected Status, are reshaping the nation's demographic future.
Trump's "America First" doctrine may be achieving its immediate goal of reducing immigration, but the long-term consequences could set America back. As Meisel warns, the U.S. is trading short-term political wins for a diminished economic and strategic position on the world stage.
