Democrat Denise Powell is projected to defeat Republican Brinker Harding in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), handing Democrats a significant pickup in a district that has long eluded them despite its presidential lean.
With 71 percent of the vote counted, Powell led Harding by 20 points, 59 percent to 39 percent, as of 9:51 p.m. EST. The victory flips a seat left open by the retirement of Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who had held the district since 2017.
Powell, a first-time candidate who founded an organization to support local Democratic candidates across Nebraska, ran a campaign focused on economic populism. She hammered the Trump administration over rising prices and the growing wealth of the Trump family, pledging to grow the economy and lower costs for working families.
Harding, an Omaha City Council member, had the backing of President Trump and Bacon, though he notably did not promote Trump's endorsement on his campaign website. Trump held a rally in Nebraska in the final weeks of the race, but Harding did not attend. House Speaker Mike Johnson also campaigned for Harding over the summer, but as the national battlefield shifted toward redder seats, the district received less attention from national Republicans.
Powell, by contrast, drew a parade of Democratic heavyweights, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Her win is a major breakthrough for Democrats in a district that has been a perennial target.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes by congressional district, and the 2nd District has been the state's most competitive. Democrats have carried it in the last two presidential elections, with Kamala Harris winning it by 4 points in 2024, yet Bacon managed to win reelection on the same ballot by less than 2 points. That disconnect made the district a top Democratic target for years.
This cycle, forecasters were confident in a Democratic flip. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race as “likely Democratic” in their final ratings, and DDHQ gave Powell more than a 90 percent chance to win heading into Election Day.
Powell's victory also makes history: she will be the first woman to represent the 2nd District in Congress. The win adds to a broader Democratic push to reclaim competitive suburban districts, following similar flips in other states like Arizona's 6th District and Utah's 1st District.
With the House majority hanging in the balance, Powell's seat will be a crucial piece of the Democratic caucus. Her victory signals that in a district that has been a political battleground for a decade, Democrats have finally broken through.
