Newly leaked audio from Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton is giving the GOP fresh reason to worry about President Trump's influence on the midterms. In the recording, obtained by The New York Times, Paxton is heard telling donors that the Trump-led convention in Dallas actually hurt his campaign's standing with voters.
“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers,” Paxton says on the tape. He adds, “Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
The admission is striking because Paxton's entire campaign has been built around Trump's endorsement. But now, as the political reality sets in, he appears to be distancing himself from a president whose policies, according to recent polling, are deeply unpopular with the broader electorate.
The irony is hard to miss. At that same Dallas convention, Trump publicly mocked Paxton's appearance and speaking style, saying, “The fact is that some may not like the way he dresses. I don't. They may not like the way he talks.” Yet he still urged voters to back him.
So the picture is this: Trump summons Republicans to Texas for a rally meant to boost candidates like Paxton, then proceeds to roast his own Senate pick, and afterward Paxton privately admits the whole spectacle backfired. It's a stark illustration of how the president's brand is becoming a liability in competitive races.
The fallout isn't limited to Texas. Vice President Vance was in South Texas on Thursday, a region Trump carried by double digits in 2024. The fact that the administration feels the need to shore up a traditionally safe Republican state suggests real unease about the top of the ticket.
National numbers are grim for the GOP. The Wall Street Journal's latest poll puts Trump's approval at just 37 percent — the lowest pre-midterm rating for any president in that poll's history dating back to 1990. An NBC News survey found 43 percent of registered voters say their midterm vote will be a signal of opposition to Trump, the highest level since NBC began asking that question in 1998.
And the money isn't helping. According to AdImpact, more than $155 million has been spent or reserved on TV and digital ads supporting Paxton, yet he remains locked in a tight race against Democrat James Talarico. That's a staggering sum to spend to convince Texans that the administration's economic agenda is working.
Republicans can pour millions into ads, fly in the vice president, and have Trump hold rallies, but none of that changes what voters are experiencing: a shaky economy, high gas prices, and rising health insurance premiums. As the GOP's health care stalemate drags on, the party is struggling to articulate how its policies are actually improving lives.
Paxton's leaked comments don't prove every Republican privately thinks Trump is a drag, but they're a telling sign. The president's economic approval has plunged to a new low, with 73 percent disapproving. And as Trump floats using the Insurrection Act or declaring a national emergency to influence the midterms, the party's message is getting even more muddled.
At the end of the day, voters are looking for policies that make their lives better, not rallies, not the promise of $5,000 checks, and not the millions spent by super PACs. The Republican Party is failing to make that case. And for Paxton, a campaign with less political baggage might be exactly what he needs.
