Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff Tuesday, according to Decision Desk HQ, in a race that became a proxy war over loyalty to former President Donald Trump.
Paxton, who secured Trump’s endorsement just days before early voting ended, capitalized on the former president’s continued grip on the GOP base. Trump’s backing broke with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other party leaders who had rallied behind Cornyn, a four-term senator and former Judiciary Committee chairman.
The result ensures Cornyn’s tenure in the upper chamber ends without a fifth term. It also tees up a contentious general election in November, where Paxton will face Democrat James Talarico in a state that remains reliably red but has shown signs of tightening.
In his endorsement post, Trump called Cornyn “a good man” but said “he was not supportive of me when times were tough,” a reference to Cornyn’s occasional criticism of Trump and his vote to certify the 2020 election results. Cornyn had tried to cast himself as a conservative workhorse, but the Trump factor proved insurmountable.
The race was the most expensive primary in Texas history, according to AdImpact, with spending surpassing $100 million. Neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold in the March primary, forcing the costly runoff. The contest also drew national attention as a bellwether for the MAGA movement’s strength in a state where Trump won twice.
Paxton, a controversial figure even within his own party, was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of bribery and abuse of office, but was acquitted by the Texas Senate. Democrats see him as a uniquely vulnerable opponent in the general election.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll last month showed Talarico leading Paxton by 8 points, while another survey from Texas Southern University had the two tied at 45%. Talarico’s campaign has drawn comparisons to Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate bid, which came within 2.6 points of unseating Senator Ted Cruz.
Cornyn’s defeat follows the ouster of other Republicans who broke with Trump, including Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger after voting to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky also lost his primary last week to a Trump-endorsed candidate.
Texas Democrats have long viewed Paxton as a potential flip opportunity, and national party groups are likely to pour money into the race. However, Republicans remain favored given the state’s partisan lean. The race will test whether Paxton’s legal baggage can outweigh the GOP advantage in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
In a related development, the Texas AG runoff to succeed Paxton is heating up, with the successor battle intensifying as polls close. Meanwhile, in the Texas House runoffs, the Allred-Johnson rematch and the Galindo controversy topped Tuesday’s ballot.
