A new poll shows Democratic Representative Chris Pappas with a 7-point lead over Republican John E. Sununu in New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate race, a contest that could help determine control of the chamber.
The survey, released Tuesday by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIP) and commissioned by AARP, found Pappas ahead among likely voters, 51% to 44%, with the remainder undecided or supporting another candidate. The poll included an oversample of voters aged 50 and older, and in that group, Pappas' advantage shrank to just 1 point.
AARP New Hampshire State Director Christina FitzPatrick stressed the importance of courting older voters, saying candidates must address their priorities. "With affordability a top concern for New Hampshire residents this year, candidates should tell voters how they will protect and strengthen Social Security and ensure that everyone is able to age with dignity and purpose," FitzPatrick said in a statement.
The race pits two well-known political figures against each other for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Pappas has represented the Granite State in the House since 2019 and joined the Problem Solvers Caucus in 2023. Sununu served in both the House and Senate for over a decade before losing his seat to Shaheen in 2008. He is part of a prominent political family—his father, John H. Sununu, and brother, Chris Sununu, both served as New Hampshire governors.
Both candidates cruised to victory in their September primaries, setting up a general election that nonpartisan forecasters have recently deemed a toss-up. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from "lean D" to "toss up" following the primaries, reflecting the competitive nature of the race.
New Hampshire has not sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate in over a decade, though the GOP has held the governor's office since 2017. That mixed record underscores the uncertainty heading into November.
Recent polling has consistently shown Pappas with a modest edge. A New York Times/Siena College survey last month gave him a 5-point lead, while a University of New Hampshire poll showed him ahead by 8 points. The new AARP/NHIP poll, conducted September 28-29 among 1,042 likely voters, has a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
The result aligns with broader national trends as Democrats seek to defend their slim Senate majority. Analysts are watching races like this one closely, especially given the potential impact of midterm dynamics and other national issues. Sununu has sought to tie Pappas to the Biden administration, while Pappas has emphasized local issues and bipartisanship.
With less than two weeks until Election Day, both campaigns are focusing on turnout, particularly among older voters who could tip the balance. The AARP poll's finding that older voters are nearly evenly split suggests the race could hinge on which candidate better addresses concerns about Social Security, Medicare, and cost-of-living pressures.
As the race enters its final stretch, national observers are treating New Hampshire as a key battleground. A victory for Sununu would mark a significant Republican pickup, while a Pappas win would help Democrats maintain their narrow majority.
