A new Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire reveals that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has surged to the front of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary pack in the state, capturing 22% support among likely voters. The survey, conducted July 15–20, places former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21%, with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) trailing at 9%.
The results mark a significant shift from October 2024, when Buttigieg led with 19%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 15% and Ocasio-Cortez at 14%. In February 2025, Buttigieg maintained a 20% lead, with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 15%. Ocasio-Cortez’s rise comes as progressive candidates have increasingly challenged establishment figures in Democratic primaries, reflecting a broader ideological realignment within the party.
Progressive Momentum
Ocasio-Cortez, a democratic socialist, has benefited from a wave of insurgent campaigns that have elevated left-wing voices nationally. One such figure is New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has become a prominent progressive standard-bearer after a primary victory against a more moderate opponent. This trend has fueled speculation about Ocasio-Cortez’s political future, including calls for her to challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in 2026. The growing rift between the party’s progressive and centrist wings is evident in recent primary upsets, as younger voters increasingly rebel against establishment figures—a dynamic explored in Age, Not Ideology, Drives Democratic Primary Upsets as Young Voters Rebel.
State of the Race
Buttigieg remains a strong contender, having held a consistent lead in previous polls, but Ocasio-Cortez’s 22% showing—just one point ahead—suggests a tight race. The poll of 648 likely 2028 Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points, meaning the top two candidates are statistically tied. Newsom, who has been a fixture in early polling, did not register in the top three this time, signaling potential erosion of his support as the field evolves.
Ocasio-Cortez has also been touting her general election viability. In December 2024, she highlighted a poll showing her beating Vice President Vance in a hypothetical matchup, a claim that has energized her supporters. The Granite State results underscore her ability to consolidate progressive voters while appealing to a broader Democratic base in a key early primary state.
Implications for 2028
The New Hampshire survey is an early indicator of the Democratic presidential race, but it reflects growing enthusiasm for Ocasio-Cortez’s brand of politics. Her lead comes amid Mamdani's Netanyahu Arrest Threat Exposes Deeper Democratic Rift Over Israel, as the party grapples with foreign policy divisions that could shape primary debates. Additionally, 2028 Democratic Hopefuls Staking Out Rival Israel Positions as Party Rift Widens highlights how candidates are positioning themselves on contentious issues, with Ocasio-Cortez’s progressive stance contrasting with more centrist rivals.
As the 2028 cycle approaches, Ocasio-Cortez’s strong showing in New Hampshire—a state that historically rewards insurgent campaigns—could reshape the Democratic primary landscape. For now, she has emerged as the candidate to beat, but Buttigieg’s resilience and the fluidity of early polls suggest a long and competitive race ahead.
